# Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST

> 4,300 or above leads at 48%, runner-up 42% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/golddiry
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.478Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 4,300 or above at 48%
- Runner-up: 4,400 or above at 42%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $959

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,300 or above | 48¢ | +3pp | $84 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-4300-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t4300 |
| 4,400 or above | 42¢ | +1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-4400-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t4400 |
| 4,500 or above | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-4500-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t4500 |
| 4,600 or above | 29¢ | +1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-4600-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t4600 |
| 4,700 or above | 25¢ | +3pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-4700-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t4700 |
| 4,800 or above | 18¢ | ±0 | $182 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-4800-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t4800 |
| 4,900 or above | 18¢ | −1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-4900-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t4900 |
| 5,000 or above | 17¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-5000-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t5000 |
| 5,100 or above | 13¢ | +1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-5100-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t5100 |
| 5,300 or above | 12¢ | +3pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-5300-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t5300 |
| 5,200 or above | 11¢ | −3pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-5200-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t5200 |
| 5,400 or above | 10¢ | +3pp | $193 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-5400-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t5400 |
| 5,500 or above | 9¢ | +1pp | $295 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-gold-be-above-5500-on-december-3-kalshi-kxgolddiry-26dec31h1700-t5500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4,300 or above | 4,400 or above | 4,500 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 68 | 59 | 56 |
| 2026-06-14 | 91 | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | — | 65 | 45 |
| 2026-06-22 | 49 | 49 | 40 |
| 2026-06-28 | 48 | 39 | 35 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · 4,400 or above −16pp 54→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 4,300 or above −8pp 54→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 4,900 or above +7pp 15→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 4,700 or above −7pp 32→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 4,500 or above −7pp 42→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 68% chance that gold closes 2026 above $4,300 per ounce, with significant uncertainty about higher price levels. This reflects traders' assessment that gold will hold recent gains through year-end, though the descending probability across higher thresholds ($4,600 at 60%, $4,800 at 53%) suggests meaningful downside risk. Gold prices are primarily influenced by US dollar strength, real interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risk appetite. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and inflation data over the next seven months will be critical drivers—rate cuts would support higher gold prices, while rate hikes would pressure them lower. The December 31 close will ultimately depend on macroeconomic conditions and risk sentiment at that specific moment, with no single scheduled catalyst but rather a cumulative effect of ongoing economic data releases.

### Key factors

- Gold is currently trading near historical highs; maintaining $4,300+ requires either continued dollar weakness or persistent inflation concerns through December
- The probability declines materially at higher price levels, indicating traders see $4,300-$4,600 as more likely than $4,700+, suggesting moderate upside expectations rather than bullish consensus
- Real interest rates (measured by 10-year Treasury yields minus inflation expectations) have an inverse relationship to gold prices; any Fed rate increases before year-end would create downward pressure
- Geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand have supported recent gold strength, but normalization of risk sentiment could reduce investment demand
- The contract's 7-month timeframe means Fed policy meetings and quarterly inflation/employment data releases will be the primary determinants of settlement direction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/golddiry
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=golddiry

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.