# Will the gold close price be above $4146.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/goldmon
Updated: 2026-05-30T07:20:12.459Z
Category: markets
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Leader: above $4253.99 at 97%
- Runner-up: above $4413.99 at 96%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $4253.99 | 97¢ | +6pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-425399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4253.99 |
| above $4413.99 | 96¢ | +28pp | $525 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-441399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4413.99 |
| above $4333.99 | 96¢ | +2pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-433399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4333.99 |
| above $4373.99 | 96¢ | +5pp | $119 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-437399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4373.99 |
| above $4453.99 | 92¢ | +35pp | $308 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-445399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4453.99 |
| above $4293.99 | 88¢ | +4pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-429399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4293.99 |
| above $4213.99 | 84¢ | +8pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-421399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4213.99 |
| above $4173.99 | 84¢ | +7pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-417399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4173.99 |
| above $4493.99 | 69¢ | +29pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-449399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4493.99 |
| above $4533.99 | 31¢ | +12pp | $317 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-453399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4533.99 |
| above $4573.99 | 7¢ | +2pp | $578 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-457399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t4573.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | above $4253.99 | above $4413.99 | above $4333.99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 83 | 74 | 80 |
| 2026-05-25 | 93 | 84 | 92 |
| 2026-05-29 | 96 | 94 | 90 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether gold will close above $4,146.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The 83% probability reflects strong market conviction that gold will remain above this threshold, suggesting traders expect gold to maintain or gain value over the coming weeks. The current gold price level relative to this strike price and broader macroeconomic conditions—including inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and currency movements—will determine whether this level holds. The resolution date of April 30, 2026 represents the key moment when uncertainty ends, though major economic data releases or Fed announcements in the weeks leading up to that date could significantly shift the probability if they materially change inflation or interest rate expectations.

### Key factors

- Gold is trading substantially above the $4,146.99 strike price, requiring a significant decline of roughly 10-15% or more to fail this contract
- Related contracts show measurable probability mass for higher strike prices ($4,373.99, $4,580, $4,610, $5,013.99), indicating market view that gold may trend upward or sideways rather than downward
- Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation data releases between now and late April 2026 will be primary drivers—higher rates typically pressure gold, while inflation concerns support it
- The May 29 contracts trading above this April 30 strike suggest traders see some risk of decline by end-April but recovery potential by late May, creating uncertainty bands
- Current trading volume concentration and the leader contract's 2-point spread above the runner-up indicate consensus but not unanimous certainty among active traders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/goldmon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=goldmon

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