# Will Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau win more major tournaments in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/golftennismajors
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.177Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-28

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau combined | 32¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-and-bryson-dec-kalshi-kxgolftennismajors-26-sch-mci-dec |
| Jannik Sinner | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-win-more-major-tournaments-in-2-kalshi-kxgolftennismajors-26-sin |
| Tie | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jannik-sinner-have-the-same-amount-of-major-t-kalshi-kxgolftennismajors-26-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 5 |
| 2026-04-24 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau combined −7pp 39→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Jannik Sinner +3pp 24→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Jannik Sinner +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Scheffler, McIlroy, and DeChambeau collectively win more major championships in 2026 than they did in 2025. The 35% probability reflects skepticism that this trio will increase their major title count this year. Market pricing suggests traders view 2025 as a high baseline—Scheffler in particular won multiple majors last year, making repeat or increased success less likely statistically. The main driver of the current probability is regression to the mean; elite golfers rarely sustain peak performance across consecutive seasons. Upcoming major championships (Masters in April, PGA Championship in May, U.S. Open in June, Open Championship in July) will incrementally resolve this question. Current volume concentrates on Scheffler's near-term performance, particularly the Cadillac Championship and PGA Championship outcomes, suggesting these events serve as leading indicators for how markets will reprice the broader season.

### Key factors

- Scheffler won 3 majors in 2025; markets price a <20% chance he wins the PGA Championship, suggesting traders expect regression from his 2025 pace
- McIlroy and DeChambeau show single-digit major championship win probabilities in available Kalshi contracts, indicating low expected contribution to the trio's combined total
- The collective 35% probability implies the market estimates approximately 0-1 major wins combined for all three players in 2026, down from their 2025 results
- High volume on Scheffler top-5 and top-10 finishes (85-95¢) versus major wins (10-19¢) indicates traders expect him to compete without winning majors
- Major championships occur on fixed dates; April-July 2026 events will provide decisive data; no unresolved uncertainty remains after the Open Championship in July

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/golftennismajors
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=golftennismajors

## License

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