# Will Google (GOOGL) close above ___ end of April — $340

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 1 contract — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/google-googl-close-above-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.112Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $451

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google | 5¢ | −1pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 10 |
| 2026-05-25 | 11 |
| 2026-06-01 | 7 |
| 2026-06-07 | 5 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether Google's stock will close above $340 by the end of April 2026. The current 61% probability reflects substantial disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 43% while Polymarket traders price it at 89%, a 46-point gap suggesting uncertainty about current stock levels or different risk assessments. With only one day remaining in April, the outcome depends almost entirely on GOOGL's actual closing price on April 30. The main driver is whether the stock is currently trading near, above, or significantly below the $340 threshold. Resolution occurs at market close on April 30, 2026. The cross-venue divergence suggests either one group has superior information about Google's current trading price, or different trader bases assign different probabilities to GOOGL reaching this level in the final trading session of the month.

### Key factors

- Google (GOOGL) closing price on April 30, 2026 relative to the $340 strike level
- Current GOOGL trading price as of April 29, 2026 and distance to target
- Intraday volatility and typical daily moves for GOOGL during this period
- 46-percentage-point spread between Kalshi (43%) and Polymarket (89%) indicating significant information asymmetry across venues
- One trading day remains for resolution, limiting time for fundamental catalyst impact

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/google-googl-close-above-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=google-googl-close-above-april

## License

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