# Will Stranger Things be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 17 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/googlesearch
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.858Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $470

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| His & Hers | 5¢ | ±0 | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-his-hers-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-sea-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-tvs27-his |
| The Pitt | 11¢ | +3pp | $197 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-pitt-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-sea-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-tvs27-pit |
| The Odyssey | 40¢ | −1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-odyssey-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-mov27-ody |
| Tom Holland | 13¢ | −3pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-holland-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-act27-tom |
| Erling Haaland | 39¢ | +4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-erling-haaland-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-ath27-erl |
| Jacob Elordi | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-elordi-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-act27-jaco |
| Timothée Chalamet | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-timothe-chalamet-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-yea-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-act27-tim |
| Will Smith | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-will-smith-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-s-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-act27-wil |
| Zendaya | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zendaya-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-sear-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-act27-zen |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristiano-ronaldo-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-ye-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-ath27-cri |
| Jalen Brunson | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jalen-brunson-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-i-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-ath27-jal |
| Lionel Messi | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lionel-messi-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-ath27-lio |
| Michael | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-sear-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-mov27-mic |
| Obsession | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-obsession-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-se-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-mov27-obs |
| One Battle After Another | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-one-battle-after-another-be-the-1-rank-on-goo-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-mov27-one |
| Project Hail Mary | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-project-hail-mary-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-ye-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-mov27-pro |
| Toy Story 5 | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toy-story-5-be-the-1-rank-on-googles-year-in-kalshi-kxgooglesearch-mov27-toy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | 19 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-08 · Erling Haaland −7pp 40→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · The Odyssey +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · The Odyssey +6pp 33→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Obsession −5pp 32→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Erling Haaland +4pp 33→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market tracks whether Stranger Things will rank as the most-searched TV show globally according to Google's annual Year in Search 2026 list, currently priced at 14% probability. The relatively low probability reflects that Stranger Things faces substantial competition from other major television properties and cultural phenomena. Key drivers include whether the show releases new content in 2026, the extent of ongoing fan engagement, and how search volume compares to competing shows during the year. The market will resolve in December 2026 when Google publishes its official Year in Search rankings, at which point the actual ranking data becomes public and verifiable. Until then, uncertainty stems from unpredictability of global search trends, competing shows' release schedules, and the cumulative search behavior of billions of users worldwide.

### Key factors

- Stranger Things' official release schedule in 2026 and content volume—new season availability directly impacts search volume
- Competing TV shows' release timing and cultural moments in 2026 that could generate larger search volumes
- Historical search patterns showing whether Stranger Things maintains consistent year-over-year interest or has declined since peak seasons
- Google's Year in Search 2026 publication in December as the definitive resolution source with publicly available rankings
- Broader entertainment landscape shifts and potential competing entertainment phenomena that capture global search attention

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/googlesearch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=googlesearch

## License

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