# Who will win the governorship in Alaska

> Tom Begich leads at 36%, runner-up 21% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govak
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.536Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Tom Begich at 36%
- Runner-up: Bernadette Wilson at 21%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-alaska-tom-begich-kalshi-kxgovak-26-tbeg |
| Bernadette Wilson | 21¢ | ±0 | $409 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-alaska-bernadette-kalshi-kxgovak-26-bwil |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 10¢ | +1pp | $683 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-alaska-jonathan-k-kalshi-kxgovak-26-jkre |
| Treg Taylor | 8¢ | +1pp | $281 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-alaska-treg-taylo-kalshi-kxgovak-26-ttay |
| Click Bishop | 8¢ | ±0 | $64 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-alaska-click-bish-kalshi-kxgovak-26-cbis |
| Dave Bronson | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-alaska-dave-brons-kalshi-kxgovak-26-dbro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 21 | — | 14 |
| 2026-04-14 | 23 | 28 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 34 | 24 | 9 |
| 2026-05-01 | 37 | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 36 | 20 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 20 | 10 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Bernadette Wilson −4pp 24→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Dave Bronson +4pp 5→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Treg Taylor −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The current 36% probability indicates that the leading candidate for Alaska's governorship is favored but faces meaningful competition, with a roughly 2-to-1 advantage over the next closest contender at 24%. Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial race remains fluid because the state has a history of competitive elections and split-ticket voting patterns. The primary outcome will likely depend on turnout dynamics, the final composition of candidates after any primary contests, and economic conditions in the state heading into the general election. Major campaign developments, polling shifts, or unexpected candidate exits could substantially move these probabilities. The resolution of this market will depend entirely on the November 2026 general election results.

### Key factors

- The leading candidate currently prices at 36% with the second-place option at 24%, indicating a moderately concentrated but non-dominant position with 40% probability assigned to all other outcomes combined
- Alaska's relatively small population and history of swing behavior means polling samples may be limited, introducing higher variance in probability estimates compared to larger states
- The market reflects early-stage pricing with more than 17 months until the November 2026 general election, suggesting substantial room for candidate emergence, withdrawal, or campaign momentum shifts
- Primary election results and candidate consolidation patterns will be critical focal points, as they typically reshape general election dynamics in multi-candidate races
- Turnout and demographic changes in Alaska could disproportionately affect outcomes given the state's smaller electoral base and historical sensitivity to participation rates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govak
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govak
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.