# Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor

> Tom Begich leads at 93%, runner-up 70% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govakprimary
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.573Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-31

## Headline

- Leader: Tom Begich at 93%
- Runner-up: Bernadette Wilson at 70%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $499

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Begich | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-tbeg |
| Bernadette Wilson | 70¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-bwil |
| Click Bishop | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-cbis |
| Dave Bronson | 33¢ | +1pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-dbro |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 32¢ | +1pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-jkre |
| Matthew Claman | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-mcla |
| Treg Taylor | 27¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-ttay |
| Bill Walker | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-bwal |
| Matt Heilala | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-mhei |
| Adam Crum | 3¢ | −1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-acru |
| Edna DeVries | 3¢ | — | $150 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-alaskas-top-four-primary-for-governor-kalshi-kxgovakprimary-26-edev |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | Click Bishop |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 44 |
| 2026-05-10 | 93 | — | 45 |
| 2026-05-12 | — | 69 | 44 |
| 2026-05-23 | — | — | 50 |
| 2026-05-27 | — | 66 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | — | 67 | 32 |
| 2026-06-04 | — | 70 | 44 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | — | 45 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Click Bishop +7pp 32→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Bill Walker +7pp 18→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Matt Heilala +6pp 5→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Click Bishop +5pp 39→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Bill Walker −4pp 25→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market expectation that one specific candidate will win Alaska's top-four primary for governor, based on trading activity across nine related contracts. The leader is priced at 90%, indicating high confidence compared to the runner-up at 70%. Movement in this probability would primarily reflect changing assessments of candidate viability, polling data releases, campaign developments, or shifts in voter preference as the primary election approaches. The key catalyst for resolution will be Alaska's primary election itself, which will definitively determine the winner. Until then, traders are weighing candidate momentum, endorsements, fundraising capacity, and regional support patterns to assess the likelihood of each outcome.

### Key factors

- The leading contract's 90% price significantly exceeds the runner-up's 70%, suggesting a substantial confidence gap rather than competitive parity between top candidates
- Polling data, when available, will be a primary driver of probability shifts—new surveys showing movement in candidate support would likely cause repricing across contracts
- Voter registration and turnout patterns in Alaska's specific primary system could materially affect which candidates advance, independent of statewide polling
- Campaign spending, endorsements, and media coverage changes in the months before the primary will provide real-time information affecting market prices
- The timing of the primary election date serves as the resolution point; probabilities should compress as that date approaches and become increasingly informative

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govakprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govakprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.