# Will Scott Bottoms be the Republican nominee for Governor in Colorado

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govconomr
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.968Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbara Kirkmeyer | 6¢ | −1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-barbara-kirkmeyer-be-the-republican-nominee-f-kalshi-kxgovconomr-26-bkir |
| Victor Marx | 91¢ | +1pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-victor-marx-be-the-republican-nominee-for-gov-kalshi-kxgovconomr-26-vmar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 43 |
| 2026-06-12 | 28 |
| 2026-06-19 | 41 |
| 2026-06-26 | 50 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Barbara Kirkmeyer −28pp 46→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Victor Marx +20pp 44→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Victor Marx +13pp 74→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Victor Marx +9pp 64→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Barbara Kirkmeyer −6pp 15→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Scott Bottoms wins the Republican primary for Colorado governor ahead of the 2026 general election. At 35%, the market indicates he is considered a viable but not dominant candidate within the field. Bottoms' probability would likely rise if he gains momentum through early endorsements, fundraising success, or strong polling performance in key Republican areas. Conversely, it could decline if other candidates consolidate support or if he faces criticism on policy positions. The primary election itself—scheduled for June 2026—represents the key event that will resolve this question definitively. Until then, shifts in the probability will track candidate activity, emerging challengers, and performance indicators that suggest broader electability or appeal to Republican primary voters.

### Key factors

- Primary election is scheduled for June 2026, roughly one month away from the current date
- 35% probability suggests Bottoms is one of several credible candidates rather than frontrunner or long-shot
- Market is aggregating data from 18 Kalshi contracts, indicating moderate but not overwhelming trading volume or certainty
- No recent major endorsements or polling data are visible in the contract feed, suggesting uncertainty remains high among prediction market participants
- Colorado Republican primary dynamics and candidate field composition directly influence whether 35% represents strong positioning or remaining fragmentation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govconomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govconomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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