# Will there be a government shutdown?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 16 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/government-shutdown
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:06.977Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2029-03-31

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 14% / Polymarket 50% — 36pp spread
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 5% | 3¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-us-federal-deficit-to-gdp-for-fy2026-be-below-kalshi-kxdefgdp-26oct20-t5 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-proof-of-us-citizen-kalshi-kxelectionbill-27jan01 |
| More than 100,000 | 37¢ | −1pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-100000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-100000 |
| At least 250 billion | 9¢ | −1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-decrease-by-250-before-20-kalshi-kxgovtcuts-28-250 |
| Shutdown & Republican Party | 19¢ | +4pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026-s-polymarket-0x02df71403f5136e9c803231cb8e2333a1b9f575bb51792bd91bde8dfe4242220 |
| Shutdown & Democratic Party | 81¢ | +2pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026-s-polymarket-0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c |
| 2 | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t2 |
| 3 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t3 |
| 4 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t4 |
| 5 | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t5 |
| At least 1 trillion | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-decrease-by-1000-before-2-kalshi-kxgovtcuts-28-1000 |
| At least 250 billion | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-decrease-by-250-before-20-kalshi-kxgovtcuts-26-250 |
| At least 500 billion | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-decrease-by-500-before-20-kalshi-kxgovtcuts-26-500 |
| At least 750 billion | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-decrease-by-750-before-20-kalshi-kxgovtcuts-26-750 |
| At least 1 trillion | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-government-spending-decrease-by-1000-before-2-kalshi-kxgovtcuts-26-1000 |
| More than 150,000 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-150000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-150000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 12 |
| 2026-06-01 | 19 |
| 2026-06-08 | 17 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · More than 150,000 −21pp 45→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · More than 100,000 −18pp 74→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · More than 100,000 −16pp 56→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Shutdown & Republican Party +4pp 15→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · More than 150,000 −3pp 22→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently indicate a 62% chance of exactly two distinct federal government shutdowns occurring in 2026. Smaller contingencies suggest an 19% probability for three shutdowns and an 8% probability for four. These market-implied probabilities reflect significant uncertainty regarding legislative stability for the remainder of the year.

### Key factors

- 62% chance of two shutdowns
- 19% chance of three shutdowns
- 8% chance of four shutdowns
- market volatility

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/government-shutdown
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=government-shutdown

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.