# Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 2 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govflnomr
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.430Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $33K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Fishback | 5¢ | ±0 | $24K | kalshi | /markets/will-james-fishback-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovflnomr-26-jfis |
| Byron Donalds | 94¢ | +1pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-byron-donalds-be-the-republican-nominee-for-g-kalshi-kxgovflnomr-26-bd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 89 |
| 2026-06-12 | 50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 7 |
| 2026-06-24 | 50 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects an estimated 32% chance that Byron Donalds will secure the Republican nomination for Florida Governor. Donalds, a U.S. Congressman, enters a field where other candidates like James Fishback are also competing for the nomination. The probability reflects uncertainty about candidate viability, fundraising capacity, primary endorsements, and voter preference in Florida's Republican primary electorate. Key factors include whether Donalds can differentiate himself from other declared or potential candidates, his ability to secure party establishment support versus grassroots backing, and how well he performs in early polling and primary contests. The Republican primary process—including candidate filing deadlines, debate participation, and primary election results—will provide concrete data points that resolve much of this uncertainty.

### Key factors

- Candidate field composition: whether other major figures enter or exit the race before filing deadlines
- Early polling numbers among Florida Republicans and name recognition relative to competitors
- Fundraising totals and donor support indicators from quarterly FEC disclosures
- Endorsements from state party leadership, elected officials, and influential conservative figures
- Primary election results and vote share in early contests or the general primary itself

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govflnomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govflnomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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