# Will Randy Feenstra be the Republican nominee for Governor in Iowa

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govianomr
Updated: 2026-06-02T19:20:12.816Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $197K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Lahn | 21¢ | +3pp | $101K | kalshi | /markets/will-zach-lahn-be-the-republican-nominee-for-gover-kalshi-kxgovianomr-26-zlah |
| Randy Feenstra | 79¢ | −2pp | $95K | kalshi | /markets/will-randy-feenstra-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovianomr-26-rfee |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 15 |
| 2026-05-25 | 47 |
| 2026-06-01 | 50 |
| 2026-06-02 | 21 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Zach Lahn +8pp 10→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Zach Lahn +3pp 18→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Randy Feenstra wins the Republican primary for Iowa governor before the general election. At 39%, the market indicates Feenstra is a significant contender but faces meaningful competition within the party. The current level likely reflects his standing in recent Iowa polling and organizational strength compared to other potential Republican candidates. Movement would depend on two main factors: changes in candidate field composition (if other candidates drop out or enter) and shifts in voter preference shown through public polling or primary results from similar states. The 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary will definitively resolve this market, making the actual primary election date the key catalyst for determining the outcome.

### Key factors

- Feenstra's current polling position relative to other declared or potential Republican candidates in Iowa
- Recent campaign finance and organizational activity indicating candidate viability in the state
- Whether the full Republican candidate field has formed or if additional candidates may enter before primary filing deadlines
- Historical turnout and vote patterns in Iowa Republican gubernatorial primaries
- Public endorsements and support from Iowa Republican party leadership or affiliated organizations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govianomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govianomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.