# Will Vicki Schmidt be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govksnomr
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.532Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Masterson | 74¢ | ±0 | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-ty-masterson-be-the-republican-nominee-for-go-kalshi-kxgovksnomr-26-tm |
| Philip Sarnecki | 6¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-philip-sarnecki-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovksnomr-26-ps |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 42 |
| 2026-06-12 | 81 |
| 2026-06-18 | 10 |
| 2026-06-25 | 6 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Ty Masterson −4pp 76→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Ty Masterson +3pp 72→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Philip Sarnecki −3pp 10→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Vicki Schmidt wins the Republican primary for Kansas governor. At 43%, the market indicates she is a significant contender but faces meaningful competition. Schmidt, a former state legislator and current State Board of Education member, brings relevant political experience, though the Kansas Republican primary remains competitive. The current probability reflects uncertainty about primary voter preferences and whether other candidates might generate stronger momentum. The main drivers would be campaign fundraising levels, endorsements from state party establishment figures, and polling data closer to the primary election date. The Republican primary election in Kansas will ultimately resolve this contract, likely occurring in August 2026, making candidate activity and campaign developments over the coming months critical to watch.

### Key factors

- Vicki Schmidt's prior legislative service and current State Board of Education position represent established political credentials within Kansas Republican circles
- Primary election timing (August 2026) means candidate field composition, endorsements, and fundraising through mid-2026 will significantly influence outcomes
- Competing Republican candidates' campaign viability, name recognition, and resource levels directly impact Schmidt's path to the nomination
- Turnout patterns and geographic voting preferences in Kansas Republican primaries have historically varied, affecting how establishment candidates perform relative to insurgent challengers
- No major scandal or campaign-altering event appears priced into the 43% probability, suggesting modest confidence in Schmidt's nomination chances

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govksnomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govksnomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.