# Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Maine

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govmenomd
Updated: 2026-06-20T13:20:20.457Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 57% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah Pingree | 57¢ | +8pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-hannah-pingree-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovmenomd-26-hpin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 15 |
| 2026-06-07 | 18 |
| 2026-06-14 | 57 |
| 2026-06-19 | 63 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Hannah Pingree +8pp 55→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Troy Jackson, the Maine State Senate President, will win the Democratic nomination for Governor of Maine. At 30%, traders assess meaningful but uncertain chances he will be selected as his party's standard-bearer. The probability level suggests significant competition within the Democratic primary field and questions about Jackson's broader electability appeal beyond his legislative base. Key uncertainties include whether Jackson announces candidacy, how he performs relative to other potential Democratic candidates, and whether recent legislative or political developments enhance or diminish his standing. The Maine gubernatorial election cycle typically features nomination decisions during the spring and early summer of election years, with primary voting dates serving as major resolution points. Market participants appear to view Jackson as a credible candidate with substantial obstacles to securing the nomination.

### Key factors

- Troy Jackson's official declaration of candidacy or public positioning regarding a gubernatorial run remains uncertain
- Competitive dynamics within the Democratic primary field—specifically which other candidates enter and their relative name recognition and donor support
- Jackson's legislative accomplishments and approval ratings among Maine Democratic voters as measured in available polling data
- Historical patterns of Maine Democratic primary outcomes and whether insider legislative candidates have successfully secured nominations
- Timeline clarity on when Maine Democrats will hold nominating events or primary elections in the 2026 cycle

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govmenomd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govmenomd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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