# Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govmenomr
Updated: 2026-06-20T13:20:20.457Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 83% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $373

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Charles | 83¢ | −4pp | $373 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-charles-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovmenomr-26-rcha |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 63 |
| 2026-06-07 | 88 |
| 2026-06-14 | 96 |
| 2026-06-19 | 93 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-14 · Robert Charles +7pp 89→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Robert Charles −4pp 97→93¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Garrett Mason will win the Republican primary nomination for Maine's gubernatorial race. At 37%, the market suggests Mason is a competitive but not dominant candidate in what appears to be an open or contested primary field. The probability level likely reflects factors such as Mason's current position within Maine Republican circles, his fundraising capacity relative to other candidates, and recent polling or endorsement patterns. The main catalysts affecting this probability would be candidate entry or withdrawal announcements, major primary campaign events, and any public polling data specific to the Maine Republican gubernatorial primary. The nomination will ultimately be determined at Maine's Republican state convention or through the primary election process scheduled for 2026.

### Key factors

- Mason's current name recognition and organizational support within Maine Republican Party structures
- Competition from other potential Republican candidates and their respective funding or endorsement levels
- Changes in candidate field composition (entries, withdrawals, or consolidation of support)
- Primary election rules and delegate allocation mechanisms specific to Maine Republican processes
- Polling data and grassroots activity metrics from Maine-focused surveys or campaign metrics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govmenomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govmenomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.