# Will Aric Nesbitt be the Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 3 contracts — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govminomr
Updated: 2026-06-28T01:20:50.936Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $251

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John James | 84¢ | −1pp | $251 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-james-be-the-republican-nominee-for-gove-kalshi-kxgovminomr-26-jj |
| Mike Cox | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-cox-be-the-republican-nominee-for-govern-kalshi-kxgovminomr-26-mc |
| Perry Johnson | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-perry-johnson-be-the-republican-nominee-for-g-kalshi-kxgovminomr-26-pj |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 30 |
| 2026-06-14 | 45 |
| 2026-06-21 | 31 |
| 2026-06-26 | 47 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · John James +20pp 61→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Mike Cox −7pp 13→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Perry Johnson −7pp 15→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Mike Cox −5pp 18→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · John James +4pp 81→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Aric Nesbitt, a Michigan Republican politician, will secure his party's gubernatorial nomination in the upcoming election cycle. The 45% probability suggests the market sees him as a competitive but uncertain candidate among a field of potential nominees. Key factors driving this level include Nesbitt's prior electoral experience and party connections, balanced against questions about whether other candidates might emerge with stronger name recognition or funding. The main catalyst that would shift this probability would be the official announcement of other major candidates entering the race, which typically occurs several months before the primary election. Early endorsements from party leadership and primary polling data as the election cycle progresses will also meaningfully impact the probability. The exact timing of Michigan's Republican gubernatorial primary process and any major political developments in the state will be critical to resolving this market.

### Key factors

- Field composition: Whether other established Michigan Republican figures announce candidacy before the primary filing deadline, which would directly affect Nesbitt's nomination odds
- Primary voting patterns: Historical Republican primary turnout and demographic voting shifts in Michigan that could favor or deter Nesbitt's candidacy
- Party endorsement status: Explicit support or opposition from Michigan Republican Party leadership and major conservative donors
- General election viability: Polling data comparing each candidate's performance against the likely Democratic nominee in a general election matchup
- Fundraising trajectory: Quarterly campaign finance reports showing relative spending and donation levels among declared candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govminomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govminomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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