# Will Chip Keating be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govoknomr
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.527Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $29K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gentner Drummond | 26¢ | −2pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-genter-drummond-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovoknomr-26-gdru |
| Mike Mazzei | 72¢ | −3pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-mazzei-be-the-republican-nominee-for-gov-kalshi-kxgovoknomr-26-mmaz |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 33 |
| 2026-06-12 | 47 |
| 2026-06-19 | 49 |
| 2026-06-26 | 26 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Gentner Drummond +7pp 21→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Gentner Drummond −4pp 27→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Mike Mazzei +4pp 71→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Mike Mazzei −3pp 78→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment of whether Chip Keating will win the Republican nomination for Oklahoma Governor. The 24% probability indicates skepticism that he will be the party's standard-bearer, suggesting other candidates are viewed as more likely frontrunners. The nomination outcome depends primarily on candidate performance in any upcoming primary contests, endorsements from key Republican figures, and fundraising momentum heading into the election season. The critical catalyst will be the Oklahoma Republican primary election itself, where voters will ultimately determine the nominee. Between now and that vote, candidate campaign activity, polling data, and strategic endorsements from state party leadership will provide concrete signals about his viability.

### Key factors

- Primary election date and field size: outcomes depend on when Oklahoma's GOP primary occurs and how many viable Republican candidates compete for the nomination
- Candidate fundraising and organization: Keating's ability to raise funds and build campaign infrastructure relative to other Republican contenders will indicate his competitive position
- Endorsements from Oklahoma GOP leadership: support or opposition from sitting Republican officials and party insiders materially affects primary electability
- Polling data among Republican primary voters: direct measurement of Keating's standing compared to other candidates provides quantifiable evidence of nomination viability
- Turnout and demographic composition of primary electorate: the specific makeup and size of voters participating in the primary will determine which candidate coalition has structural advantages

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govoknomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govoknomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.