# Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 2 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govrinomr
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.259Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-08

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $85

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elaine Pelino | 22¢ | +1pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-elaine-pelino-be-the-republican-nominee-for-g-kalshi-kxgovrinomr-26-epel |
| Aaron Guckian | 62¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-guckian-be-the-republican-nominee-for-g-kalshi-kxgovrinomr-26-aguc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 10 |
| 2026-06-13 | 45 |
| 2026-06-18 | 65 |
| 2026-06-25 | 42 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Elaine Pelino −3pp 27→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Aaron Guckian +3pp 63→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Aaron Guckian −3pp 66→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the current market assessment that Aaron Guckian will win the Republican nomination for Rhode Island Governor. At 29%, the market suggests Guckian is a meaningful contender but faces significant competition. The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial race will determine the Republican nominee through either a primary election or convention process. Key factors driving this probability include Guckian's existing political profile and name recognition within Rhode Island's Republican Party, the strength and number of competing candidates in the field, and organizational capacity to mobilize primary voters. The Republican primary date and any early endorsements from state party leadership or national figures would meaningfully shift this assessment. Market participants are weighing whether Guckian can consolidate anti-incumbent sentiment or maintain establishment support as other candidates enter or intensify their campaigns.

### Key factors

- Date of Rhode Island Republican primary election and rules governing delegate allocation or direct voting
- Number of competing Republican candidates and their respective funding, endorsement backing, and campaign infrastructure
- Guckian's current voter identification metrics and polling performance among likely Republican primary voters
- Alignment with or divergence from dominant Republican Party establishment preferences in the state
- Level of national Republican attention or endorsements for Guckian versus competing candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govrinomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govrinomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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