# Will Nancy Mace be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 2 contracts — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govscnomr
Updated: 2026-06-13T12:20:48.447Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Wilson | 39¢ | +1pp | $30K | kalshi | /markets/will-alan-wilson-be-the-republican-nominee-for-gov-kalshi-kxgovscnomr-26-awil |
| Pamela Evette | 60¢ | ±0 | $16K | kalshi | /markets/will-pamela-evette-be-the-republican-nominee-for-g-kalshi-kxgovscnomr-26-peve |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 37 |
| 2026-05-30 | 47 |
| 2026-06-06 | 47 |
| 2026-06-13 | 50 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Pamela Evette −12pp 69→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Alan Wilson +11pp 31→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Alan Wilson +10pp 14→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Alan Wilson −7pp 25→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Alan Wilson +7pp 24→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Nancy Mace secures the Republican nomination for South Carolina's governorship. The 36% probability reflects a competitive race where Mace is a significant contender but faces uncertainty about her ultimate viability as the party's nominee. Her path depends on factors including primary election dynamics, fundraising success, and consolidation of support among Republican voters. The nomination will be resolved through South Carolina's primary process, with results expected in 2026. Key considerations include whether other credible Republican candidates enter the race, how effectively Mace mobilizes conservative voters, and whether any major political developments shift party dynamics before the nomination is finalized.

### Key factors

- South Carolina Republican primary voting patterns and the number of competing candidates in the race
- Mace's fundraising totals and campaign organization capacity compared to other potential nominees
- Recent polling data from South Carolina Republicans on candidate preferences and name recognition
- Whether establishment or insurgent Republican factions coalesce around specific candidates
- Any major endorsements or primary election results from other states that might influence South Carolina GOP dynamics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govscnomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govscnomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.