# Will Jon Hansen be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 2 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govsdnomr
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:51.351Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Doeden | 53¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-toby-doeden-be-the-republican-nominee-for-gov-kalshi-kxgovsdnomr-26-tdoe |
| Larry Rhoden | 46¢ | ±0 | $664 | kalshi | /markets/will-larry-rhoden-be-the-republican-nominee-for-go-kalshi-kxgovsdnomr-26-lrho |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 30 |
| 2026-06-10 | 50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 48 |
| 2026-06-25 | 51 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Larry Rhoden −14pp 60→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Toby Doeden +10pp 41→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Larry Rhoden +6pp 54→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Toby Doeden −3pp 51→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Larry Rhoden +3pp 46→49¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Jon Hansen will secure the Republican Party's nomination for South Dakota Governor in the 2026 election cycle. At 32%, markets suggest Hansen faces meaningful competition for the nomination, though he remains a plausible contender. The probability is likely influenced by his political profile, existing relationships within South Dakota Republican circles, and any primary challengers who have emerged. Key factors driving the level include the strength and number of rival candidates, Hansen's fundraising and endorsement trajectory, and organizational capacity in early voting regions. The Republican primary election date will serve as the critical resolution point, clarifying which candidate the party base ultimately selects. Prior to that vote, candidate announcements, polling data releases, and endorsements from party leadership will provide incremental information about nomination chances.

### Key factors

- Number and political viability of competing Republican primary candidates for the South Dakota governorship
- Jon Hansen's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to primary opponents
- Endorsements from South Dakota Republican Party leadership, current elected officials, and prominent state figures
- Results from any public polling data or primary straw polls conducted among South Dakota Republican voters
- Official Republican primary election date and Hansen's performance relative to expectations as that date approaches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govsdnomr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govsdnomr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.