# Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Oct 1, 2026

> Before Dec 1, 2026 leads at 95%, runner-up 92% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govtfullfund-26aug
Updated: 2026-08-10T04:20:51.097Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 95%
- Runner-up: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 92%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $62

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 95¢ | +4pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-upon-becoming-law-completes-kalshi-kxgovtfullfund-26aug-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 92¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-upon-becoming-law-completes-kalshi-kxgovtfullfund-26aug-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 16, 2026 | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-upon-becoming-law-completes-kalshi-kxgovtfullfund-26aug-26oct16 |
| Before Oct 9, 2026 | 83¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-upon-becoming-law-completes-kalshi-kxgovtfullfund-26aug-26oct09 |
| Before Oct 2, 2026 | 83¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-upon-becoming-law-completes-kalshi-kxgovtfullfund-26aug-26oct02 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 81¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-upon-becoming-law-completes-kalshi-kxgovtfullfund-26aug-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 26, 2026 | 46¢ | −3pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-upon-becoming-law-completes-kalshi-kxgovtfullfund-26aug-26sep26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 | Before Oct 16, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 68 | 67 | 67 |
| 2026-08-05 | 87 | 86 | 85 |
| 2026-08-06 | 87 | 86 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 91 | 87 | 86 |
| 2026-08-09 | 95 | 93 | 86 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Before Dec 1, 2026 +19pp 68→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Before Nov 1, 2026 +19pp 67→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Before Oct 9, 2026 +18pp 66→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Before Oct 16, 2026 +18pp 67→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Before Oct 1, 2026 +17pp 65→82¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 86% probability that comprehensive appropriations legislation covering all 12 regular appropriations acts becomes law by October 1, 2026. This reflects historical patterns where Congress typically passes spending bills before fiscal year-end deadlines, though timing remains uncertain. The probability declines sharply for earlier dates—only 49% for passage by September 26—suggesting traders expect last-minute legislative activity rather than early agreement. The primary driver is the September 30 fiscal year deadline, which creates urgency for passage. Downward pressure would come from legislative gridlock, partisan disputes over spending levels, or procedural delays. The key uncertainty is whether Congress will pass a continuing resolution (temporary measure) or seek comprehensive appropriations, with the latter being more difficult to negotiate.

### Key factors

- September 30, 2026 fiscal year deadline creates hard deadline for appropriations action; historically Congress passes spending legislation near this date
- Contract pricing shows sharp probability decline from 86% (Oct 1) to 49% (Sep 26), indicating traders expect resolution in final days rather than early passage
- Continuing resolutions (temporary extensions) satisfy the resolution criteria, which is more achievable than full appropriations bills and would lower legislative hurdles
- Historical baseline: Congress has passed all 12 appropriations acts on time in only 4 of the past 30+ years, making last-minute passage or CRs the norm
- Partisan control of Congress and disagreements over specific funding allocations could force shorter-term continuing resolutions rather than comprehensive legislation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govtfullfund-26aug
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govtfullfund-26aug

## License

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