# Will Adam Kurtz be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Tennessee

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 2 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govtnnomd
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.293Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-06

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerri Green | 88¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerri-green-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-gov-kalshi-kxgovtnnomd-26-jgre |
| Carnita Atwater | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnita-atwater-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxgovtnnomd-26-catw |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 77 |
| 2026-04-25 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 80 |
| 2026-05-08 | 43 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Jerri Green +5pp 80→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the perceived likelihood that Adam Kurtz will secure the Democratic nomination for Tennessee governor. At 27%, the probability suggests moderate competition within the Democratic primary field, with other candidates viewed as having stronger positioning. Key factors driving this level include Kurtz's current name recognition and organizational infrastructure relative to other potential Democratic candidates in Tennessee, a state where Democrats face structural challenges in statewide elections. The nomination process will depend heavily on candidate entry decisions, funding availability, and primary turnout patterns. The critical catalyst will be the official primary election date and filing deadlines set by Tennessee election officials, typically occurring months before the general election. Democratic primary outcomes in Tennessee often reflect broader regional political trends and voter engagement levels during non-presidential years.

### Key factors

- No major Democratic candidate has yet formally announced for the Tennessee governor race as of mid-2026, creating uncertainty about the final field composition
- Tennessee's Democratic primary electorate size and geographic distribution will significantly influence nomination dynamics compared to general election viability
- Kurtz's fundraising totals and endorsements from established Tennessee Democratic figures relative to competing candidates will serve as concrete measures of institutional support
- Voter turnout in the Democratic primary versus Republican primary could shift nomination probability depending on which party generates higher engagement
- Filing deadlines and the official primary election date set by Tennessee authorities will represent the key resolution events for this market

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govtnnomd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govtnnomd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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