# Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 18 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govtshutlength
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:10.886Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-04

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 22% / Polymarket 40% — 18pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 44¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-oai |
| Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? | 21¢ | −1pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/will-mitch-mcconnell-step-down-from-the-senate-bef-polymarket-0x15d2e66dcf1d63c5695d6d0e9e2f8e06dd246d00fd5dfc254f2b22baa33bfa1b |
| Shutdown & Republican Party | 19¢ | +4pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026-s-polymarket-0x02df71403f5136e9c803231cb8e2333a1b9f575bb51792bd91bde8dfe4242220 |
| Shutdown & Democratic Party | 81¢ | +2pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026-s-polymarket-0x9317b943475e9d550402f328a1ea9cb5f69a616ffd471cffb0a4978ac22a8c3c |
| Matthew Stafford | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-stafford-lead-pro-football-in-passing-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-mstafford9 |
| 2 | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t2 |
| 3 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t3 |
| 4 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t4 |
| 5 | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-government-shutdowns-a-kalshi-kxnumshutdowns-27jan01-t5 |
| Jordan Love | 20¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-love-lead-pro-football-in-passing-touc-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-jlove10 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-lead-pro-football-in-passing-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-pmahomes15 |
| More than 150,000 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-150000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-150000 |
| Bo Nix | 34¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bo-nix-lead-pro-football-in-passing-touchdown-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-bnix10 |
| Tyler Shough | 73¢ | +71pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tyler-shough-lead-pro-football-in-passing-tou-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-tshough6 |
| Dak Prescott | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dak-prescott-lead-pro-football-in-passing-tou-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-dprescott4 |
| More than 250,000 | 8¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-250000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-250000 |
| More than 300,000 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-300000-government-employee-kalshi-kxfedemployees-27feb-300000 |
| Bryce Young | 25¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bryce-young-lead-pro-football-in-passing-touc-kalshi-kxleadernflptds-27-byoung9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 33 |
| 2026-05-25 | 17 |
| 2026-06-01 | 24 |
| 2026-06-08 | 20 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · OpenAI +38pp 11→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · More than 150,000 −21pp 45→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · OpenAI −7pp 17→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · More than 250,000 −7pp 11→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Shutdown & Republican Party +4pp 15→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This question asks whether the federal government will be non-operational for at least 80 cumulative days between mid-February and year-end 2026. The 26% probability reflects moderate concern about extended shutdown scenarios, well below historical precedent. The current estimate appears driven by divided government dynamics and budget negotiations typically concentrated in September-December. Two factors push probabilities in opposite directions: funding deadline pressures (September 30 and December 15 are critical junctures) increase shutdown risk, while recent precedent suggests even contentious negotiations typically produce resolutions before 80-day thresholds are reached. The single largest catalyst will be September 2026 budget negotiations, which historically determine whether Congress can pass appropriations or faces extended standoffs. Without an extraordinary political rupture or budget impasse that month, shutdowns typically remain brief.

### Key factors

- Historical US government shutdowns since 1976 have averaged 10-16 days; reaching 80 cumulative days would require multiple extended closures or one unprecedented shutdown
- September 30, 2026 and December 15, 2026 are statutory funding deadlines where congressional action is required; outcomes of these negotiations will largely determine shutdown probability
- Divided government conditions (if present after 2026 elections) correlate with shutdown risk, but even divided Congresses have typically negotiated resolutions before cumulative 80-day threshold
- The 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (10%) suggests disagreement on severity of budget impasse likelihood
- Related Kalshi contracts show only 44% probability of 150,000+ federal employee cuts by January 2027, suggesting markets do not price in extreme fiscal confrontation scenarios

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govtshutlength
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govtshutlength

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