# Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govvtnomd
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.624Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Pieciak | 8¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-pieciak-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-go-kalshi-kxgovvtnomd-26-mpie |
| Amanda Janoo | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amanda-janoo-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-go-kalshi-kxgovvtnomd-26-ajan |
| Aly Richards | 60¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aly-richards-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-go-kalshi-kxgovvtnomd-26-aric |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 |
| 2026-04-25 | 25 |
| 2026-05-01 | 55 |
| 2026-05-07 | 60 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Mike Pieciak −11pp 19→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Aly Richards +4pp 56→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 26% probability indicates that markets currently assess there is roughly a one-in-four chance that Aly Richards will win the Democratic primary for Vermont's governorship. The outcome depends heavily on Richards' name recognition and fundraising performance relative to other Democratic candidates, as well as incumbent party dynamics and whether any stronger establishment-backed challengers enter the race. The primary election itself will provide the definitive resolution, though candidate announcements and early polling in the coming months will clarify the competitive landscape. Market pricing suggests skepticism about Richards' path to the nomination, implying traders expect other candidates to be better-positioned or more viable within the Democratic primary electorate.

### Key factors

- Whether Aly Richards announces a formal campaign and demonstrates measurable fundraising by Q3 2026
- The number and profile of other Democratic candidates who enter the primary race
- Early polling data from Vermont Democratic voters regarding candidate preferences and name recognition
- Richards' performance in candidate forums, debates, or public appearances ahead of the primary
- Endorsements from major Vermont Democratic figures and establishment organizations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/govvtnomd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=govvtnomd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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