# When will GPT-5 be released?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 9 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt-5-release
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.679Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 32% / Polymarket 72% — 40pp spread
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 85¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0xe69b388ee2691abc5a2b4d66d9212053782c88f30e26f3b791111e562d327224 |
| July 31 | 97¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-july-31-polymarket-0xadc76ee95ed51195ce46e91570ef08e6bd7002cb8929bc81de4b64c4f16852e4 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11¢ | −1pp | $337 | kalshi | /markets/winds-of-winter-release-date-announced-before-jan-kalshi-kxtwow-27-jan01 |
| December 31, 2026 | 35¢ | −3pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by-polymarket-0xf53d2cf86bf4ea3c6a0bfb739cc0dded28001dde6eee5f90b8bb6716ce33571a |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 37¢ | −2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-sep-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26sep01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 66¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-nov-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26nov01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-jul-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26jul01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 17¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-aug-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26aug01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 55¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-oct-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 45 |
| 2026-05-25 | 53 |
| 2026-06-01 | 43 |
| 2026-06-08 | 72 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · December 31, 2026 +13pp 22→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · December 31, 2026 +12pp 28→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · December 31, 2026 −7pp 35→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · June 30 +5pp 86→91¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · June 30 −5pp 90→85¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt-5-release
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gpt-5-release

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.