# Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026

> Before Nov 1, 2026 leads at 73%, runner-up 66% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt-open
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.520Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 73%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 66%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $664

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-nov-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 66¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-oct-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 63¢ | −1pp | $519 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-sep-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26sep01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 36¢ | ±0 | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-aug-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26aug01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 9¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-jul-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26jul01 |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-6-before-jun-1-2026-before-kalshi-kxgpt-open-26jun01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Nov 1, 2026 | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Sep 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 81 | 76 | 68 |
| 2026-04-25 | 83 | 74 | 68 |
| 2026-05-01 | 78 | 70 | 66 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 67 | 62 |
| 2026-05-07 | 73 | 66 | 59 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −5pp 40→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −4pp 66→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Before Jul 1, 2026 −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −4pp 78→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −3pp 63→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that OpenAI releases GPT-6 within the next 29 days, by June 1, 2026. The 78% probability suggests significant market confidence in a near-term release, though it notably exceeds the 44% average from Kalshi contracts, indicating possible divergence in market expectations. The main drivers of this elevated probability would be OpenAI's recent development pace and any public statements about release timelines, while factors weighing against it include the typical 18-24 month gap between major GPT versions historically. The most critical catalyst is any official announcement from OpenAI regarding GPT-6 availability or launch timing, which would immediately clarify whether a May or early June release is genuinely planned. Current market signals show mixed confidence given the data from related prediction contracts.

### Key factors

- Historical release patterns show approximately 18-24 months between major GPT versions (GPT-4 in March 2023 to GPT-5 timeframe), making a May 2026 release earlier than the typical cycle
- The 34-point gap between SimpleFunctions' 78% and Kalshi's aggregated 44% probability suggests potential arbitrage opportunity or different information sets between prediction markets
- No public statements from OpenAI leadership as of early May 2026 have confirmed GPT-6 availability within the specified timeframe
- The compressed 29-day window makes this a binary event with limited opportunity for gradual probability adjustment based on incremental news
- A June 1 deadline occurring on a weekend may affect actual release timing if OpenAI follows typical software release patterns of weekday deployments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt-open
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gpt-open
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.