# Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026

> Before Jul 31, 2026 leads at 71%, runner-up 62% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 37 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt-openb
Updated: 2026-06-25T22:20:49.213Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 31, 2026 at 71%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 15, 2026 at 62%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $103K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 31, 2026 | 71¢ | +4pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-56-before-jul-31-2026-befo-kalshi-kxgpt-openb-26jul31 |
| Before Jul 15, 2026 | 62¢ | −3pp | $525 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-56-before-jul-15-2026-befo-kalshi-kxgpt-openb-26jul15 |
| Before Jul 10, 2026 | 38¢ | +8pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-56-before-jul-10-2026-befo-kalshi-kxgpt-openb-26jul10 |
| Before Jul 3, 2026 | 5¢ | +8pp | $25K | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-56-before-jul-3-2026-befor-kalshi-kxgpt-openb-26jul03 |
| Before Jun 30, 2026 | 3¢ | +4pp | $66K | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-release-gpt-56-before-jun-30-2026-befo-kalshi-kxgpt-openb-26jun30 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 31, 2026 | Before Jul 15, 2026 | Before Jul 10, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 95 | 94 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 73 | 64 | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 74 | 67 | 19 |
| 2026-06-24 | 82 | 68 | 39 |
| 2026-06-25 | 86 | 65 | 47 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Before Jun 30, 2026 −45pp 81→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Before Jul 31, 2026 +33pp 40→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Before Jun 30, 2026 −30pp 53→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Before Jul 15, 2026 +25pp 39→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Before Jul 15, 2026 −23pp 89→66¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that OpenAI will announce or release GPT-5.6 within the next 29 days (by July 15, 2026). The high 91% price suggests traders believe a release is likely imminent, though contracts for earlier dates show uncertainty about exact timing—the June 19 contract trades at only 12%, indicating skepticism about a release in the next three days. The main drivers are OpenAI's typical release cadence, any public announcements or roadmap signals, and competitive pressures from other AI labs. The primary catalyst will be any official statement from OpenAI about GPT-5.6 availability, whether through a press release, blog post, or developer announcement. If no release occurs by mid-July, the probability would face significant downward pressure, suggesting traders see a narrow window for this outcome.

### Key factors

- The 12-cent price on the June 19 deadline versus 91 cents on July 15 indicates most expected release probability is concentrated in late June or early July, not immediately
- OpenAI has not made a public announcement of GPT-5.6 as of June 16, 2026, making any near-term release speculative rather than confirmed
- The 97-cent price on the July 31 contract suggests traders view a release by end-of-month as nearly certain, but the July 15 cutoff narrows this to a specific two-week window
- Trading volume is minimal across most contracts ($0-$330 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction and potential for significant repricing on news
- Success requires both model completion and OpenAI's decision to release under the 5.6 designation rather than delay or rebrand

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt-openb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gpt-openb
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.