# GPT-5.6 released by...

> July 31 leads at 83%, runner-up 80% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt56-released
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.579Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: July 31 at 83%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 80%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $32K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 83¢ | −4pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-july-31-polymarket-0xadc76ee95ed51195ce46e91570ef08e6bd7002cb8929bc81de4b64c4f16852e4 |
| June 30 | 80¢ | −5pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0xe69b388ee2691abc5a2b4d66d9212053782c88f30e26f3b791111e562d327224 |
| June 15 | 60¢ | +10pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-june-15-polymarket-0x1ff94ce9a874202523ac828138d0a2d5ffc2f3899fccbda5505909c51df76277 |
| June 8 | 45¢ | −1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-june-8-polymarket-0x2dfe124d238e2e35733558dfbeb9ca0bb54768d3a19a3cca08b9d0d8c91d8c60 |
| June 5 | 44¢ | −5pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-june-5-polymarket-0x45eee5d7a79040e420462e96c7a9a1ae542170a98c3407d241ecf52938ffd604 |
| May 31 | 8¢ | −1pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/gpt-56-released-by-may-31-polymarket-0xe1a9dc17214a900fab98a6cf77ec97e86cc5e3896320ad85000f5f506ac218c2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | July 31 | June 30 | June 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 90 | 87 | 67 |
| 2026-05-25 | 92 | 86 | 64 |
| 2026-05-26 | 79 | 81 | 54 |
| 2026-05-27 | 76 | 76 | 47 |
| 2026-05-28 | 72 | 71 | 57 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · July 31 −13pp 92→79¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · June 8 −12pp 37→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · June 8 −11pp 25→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · June 15 −10pp 64→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · June 15 +10pp 47→57¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market assigns a 92% probability that GPT-5.6 will be released by July 31, 2026, based on aggregated predictions across six outcome-based contracts. This reflects trader expectations about OpenAI's development timeline and release cadence. The high concentration of probability around July 31 suggests most traders expect the model within roughly two months, while tail probabilities at May 31 and June 5 are minimal at 6% and 34% respectively. The outcome hinges on OpenAI's internal development progress, any public announcements about release dates, and competitive pressures from other labs like Anthropic or Google. The key uncertainty is whether announced or leaked timelines will shift the distribution earlier or later. Major catalysts include OpenAI developer conferences, earnings calls, or official statements about GPT-5.6 availability.

### Key factors

- OpenAI's historical release cadence and public roadmap disclosures will directly constrain plausible timelines
- Competitive announcements from Anthropic, Google, or Meta about advanced model releases may accelerate or delay market expectations
- Technical delays or safety review processes at OpenAI could push release past July 31, shifting probability mass to later dates
- Early access or beta announcements would partially resolve uncertainty before general release, affecting contract pricing
- The 92% weight on July 31 versus 70% on June 15 indicates traders expect development to extend into late Q2 or early Q3 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gpt56-released
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gpt56-released

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.