# 2026 Grammy nominees for Album of the Year

> The Art of Loving leads at 84%, runner-up 83% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynomaoty
Updated: 2026-08-10T06:20:51.835Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: The Art of Loving at 84%
- Runner-up: you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love at 83%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $621

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Art of Loving | 84¢ | +28pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-the-art-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-art |
| you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 83¢ | −5pp | $224 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-you-see-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-you |
| The Romantic | 83¢ | −58pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-the-rom-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-rom |
| The Life of a Showgirl | 82¢ | +5pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-the-lif-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-lif |
| Lux | 68¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-lux-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-lux |
| The Great Divide | 61¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-the-gre-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-gre |
| Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally | 52¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-kiss-al-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-kis |
| petal | 49¢ | −4pp | $146 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-petal-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-pet |
| Dandelion | 49¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-dandeli-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-dan |
| Lost Weekend | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-lost-we-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-los |
| Confessions II | 15¢ | −2pp | $224 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-confess-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-con |
| West End Girl | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-west-en-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-wes |
| Iceman | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-iceman-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-ice |
| Octane | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-album-of-the-year-octane-kalshi-kxgrammynomaoty-69-oct |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Art of Loving | you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | The Romantic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 85 | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 86 | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 75 | 87 | 54 |
| 2026-08-03 | 68 | — | 47 |
| 2026-08-04 | — | — | 83 |
| 2026-08-06 | 55 | — | 25 |
| 2026-08-09 | 83 | 82 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · The Romantic −58pp 83→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Lux +37pp 26→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · The Romantic +36pp 47→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Lux −33pp 59→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · The Art of Loving +28pp 55→83¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market measures the likelihood that 'The Life of a Showgirl' will be nominated for a Grammy Award in the Album of the Year category at the 2026 Grammy Awards ceremony. The 86% probability reflects strong confidence in this outcome, though it remains below certainty. The leader's high price is driven by apparent industry expectations or betting activity favoring this album's nomination prospects. The main uncertainty stems from the Recording Academy's selection process, which depends on eligibility, voting patterns, and competition from other releases throughout the qualifying period. The Grammy nominations will be officially announced on a date set by the Recording Academy, which will definitively resolve this market. Market activity remains concentrated, with moderate trading volume on competing albums suggesting some disagreement about the leader's dominance.

### Key factors

- 'The Life of a Showgirl' trades at 86¢ while the runner-up album trades at 85¢, indicating the market views these outcomes as nearly equally likely despite the leader's marginal edge
- The 24-hour trading volume on the top competing album ('The Great Divide' at 30¢) is $521, substantially higher than other alternatives, suggesting active reassessment of relative probabilities
- Grammy Album of the Year nominations are determined by Recording Academy voting with specific eligibility requirements; albums must be released during a defined qualifying period to be considered
- The official Grammy nominations announcement date has not yet occurred, creating the primary source of resolution uncertainty for this market
- Four of the five listed contracts cluster between 30¢ and 92¢, indicating substantial disagreement about which albums merit nomination consideration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynomaoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=grammynomaoty

## License

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