# 2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album

> The Fall-Off leads at 75%, runner-up 72% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynombra
Updated: 2026-06-27T03:20:49.276Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: The Fall-Off at 75%
- Runner-up: Don't Be Dumb at 72%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $242

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fall-Off | 75¢ | −1pp | $207 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-best-rap-album-the-fall-o-kalshi-kxgrammynombra-69-fal |
| Don't Be Dumb | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-best-rap-album-dont-be-du-kalshi-kxgrammynombra-69-don |
| ICEMAN | 36¢ | −1pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-best-rap-album-iceman-kalshi-kxgrammynombra-69-dra |
| OCTANE | 17¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-best-rap-album-octane-kalshi-kxgrammynombra-69-oct |
| Bully | 11¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-best-rap-album-bully-kalshi-kxgrammynombra-69-bul |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Fall-Off | Don't Be Dumb | ICEMAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 72 | 69 | 42 |
| 2026-06-11 | 79 | 72 | 34 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 33 |
| 2026-06-19 | 79 | 72 | 35 |
| 2026-06-26 | 73 | 72 | 35 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · The Fall-Off −5pp 79→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that 'The Fall-Off' will be included in the 2026 Grammy Awards Best Rap Album category nominees. Currently priced at 77 cents, it significantly leads rivals like 'Don't Be Dumb' (73 cents) and 'OCTANE' (24 cents). The high probability reflects confidence in the album's commercial performance and critical reception relative to competitors. Market pricing could shift based on streaming metrics, critical reviews, and industry momentum for competing albums through the nomination period. The 2026 Grammy nomination announcement—scheduled for November 2025 according to typical Grammy timelines—serves as the resolution event. Until then, album releases, chart performance, and industry recognition will likely influence market sentiment around which projects secure spots in the final nominee pool.

### Key factors

- 'The Fall-Off' maintains a 4-point pricing advantage over the second-place contender, suggesting market differentiation rather than consensus uncertainty
- Typical Grammy Best Rap Album fields include 5-8 nominees, meaning multiple albums from this contract set could be selected simultaneously, creating correlated rather than mutually exclusive outcomes
- 24-hour trading volumes are modest ($4-$55 range), indicating limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information or concentrated positioning
- The album's commercial trajectory through mid-2026—streaming performance, radio play, and industry award nominations—will provide concrete data points before Grammy voting
- Grammy nomination voting typically closes in September-October of award year, creating a defined window for market-moving announcements or releases

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynombra
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=grammynombra

## License

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