# 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year

> The Fate of Ophelia leads at 91%, runner-up 86% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynomroty
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.986Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: The Fate of Ophelia at 91%
- Runner-up: I Just Might at 86%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fate of Ophelia | 91¢ | −42pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-the-fa-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-fat |
| I Just Might | 86¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-i-just-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-iju |
| Man I Need | 82¢ | −46pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-man-i-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-man |
| Choosin' Texas | 74¢ | +26pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-choosi-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-cho |
| Aperture | 38¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-apertu-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-ape |
| So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 17¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-record-of-the-year-so-eas-kalshi-kxgrammynomroty-69-soe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Fate of Ophelia | I Just Might | Man I Need |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-05-22 | 88 | 75 | 79 |
| 2026-06-05 | 46 | 77 | 33 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · Man I Need −46pp 79→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · The Fate of Ophelia −42pp 88→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Aperture −33pp 51→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Choosin' Texas −29pp 77→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Choosin' Texas +26pp 48→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that 'The Fate of Ophelia' will be nominated for a 2026 Grammy Award in the Record of the Year category. At 92%, the market is pricing in high confidence, though the 6-point gap to the runner-up suggests meaningful uncertainty remains. The current price is driven by the song's recent chart performance and critical reception, with traders weighing factors like streaming data, radio play, and historical precedent for similar releases. The Grammy nomination announcement, scheduled for November 2026, will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, shifts in streaming metrics, awards-season buzz, and competing releases could move the probability. High trading volume on this contract ($83 in 24 hours) indicates active reassessment among traders tracking early indicators of Grammy consideration.

### Key factors

- 'The Fate of Ophelia' has accumulated substantial streaming and radio metrics relative to other potential nominees in its eligibility window
- A 6-point differential to the runner-up indicates the market does not view nomination as certain despite the 92% price
- Grammy nomination ballots rely on voter familiarity and eligibility compliance; ineligibility issues or voter unfamiliarity would sharply lower probability
- Chart performance and critical reviews from industry publications historically correlate with nomination likelihood but do not guarantee selection
- November 2026 Grammy nomination announcement will produce full resolution; no intermediate data release significantly updates this forecast

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynomroty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=grammynomroty

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