# 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year

> The Fate of Ophelia leads at 90%, runner-up 83% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynomsoty
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.332Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-01

## Headline

- Leader: The Fate of Ophelia at 90%
- Runner-up: Man I Need at 83%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fate of Ophelia | 90¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year-the-fate-kalshi-kxgrammynomsoty-69-fat |
| Man I Need | 83¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year-man-i-ne-kalshi-kxgrammynomsoty-69-man |
| I Just Might | 76¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year-i-just-m-kalshi-kxgrammynomsoty-69-iju |
| Choosin' Texas | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year-choosin-kalshi-kxgrammynomsoty-69-cho |
| Aperture | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year-aperture-kalshi-kxgrammynomsoty-69-ape |
| So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 11¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/2026-grammy-nominees-for-song-of-the-year-so-easy-kalshi-kxgrammynomsoty-69-soe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | The Fate of Ophelia | Man I Need | I Just Might |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | — | 84 | — |
| 2026-06-13 | — | — | 76 |
| 2026-06-15 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | — | — | 77 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 76 |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 83 | — |
| 2026-06-23 | — | — | 79 |
| 2026-06-24 | — | — | 76 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · I Just Might +3pp 76→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · I Just Might −3pp 79→76¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 92% probability indicates market participants assess a very high likelihood that 'The Fate of Ophelia' will be nominated for the 2026 Grammy Award for Record of the Year. The Grammy nominations announcement, scheduled for November 2026, represents the sole mechanism for resolving this outcome with certainty. Current trading volume on this contract ($83 in 24-hour volume) remains modest, suggesting limited active disagreement about the outcome. The high probability reflects either strong confidence in the track's eligibility and Grammy visibility, or relatively thin trading preventing significant price discovery. Factors supporting nomination include the song's apparent commercial or critical recognition, though the exact voting patterns of Recording Academy members remain inherently uncertain. Any major developments affecting the track's status—such as disqualification, re-categorization, or competing releases gaining prominence—could shift market expectations before nomination ballots close.

### Key factors

- 'The Fate of Ophelia' must meet technical Grammy eligibility requirements (release date, format, copyright registration) with no disqualifications or disputes
- Recording Academy voters' familiarity with and preference for the track relative to other Record of the Year contenders in the final voting pool
- Comparative performance and industry momentum of competing songs in the same category during the August-October 2026 voting window
- Volume and depth of trading activity on this contract remain low ($83 24h volume), limiting confidence in price as a true reflection of distributed opinion
- The November 2026 Grammy nomination announcement date is the only definitive resolution event; no intermediate data points resolve partial uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grammynomsoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=grammynomsoty

## License

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