# Greek Basketball League

> Winner: AEK Athens leads at 50%, runner-up 49% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greek-basketball-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.992Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: AEK Athens at 50%
- Runner-up: Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki at 49%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: AEK Athens | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/greek-basketball-league-winner-aek-athens-polymarket-0x42a66d1a19edd9f2c35362d08923dca20246223bb3541c2c60fabdea7f1efc8b |
| Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki | 49¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/greek-basketball-league-winner-paok-thessaloniki-polymarket-0xe54b1653b000d1a953b55191c592bf35a25a59f391d84a11f27ec88db63ef559 |
| Winner: Panathinaikos Athens | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/greek-basketball-league-winner-panathinaikos-athen-polymarket-0x1c2a98f950aa112adf011f07098cbd3b58846499dce442ae52c0eb6937a2432d |
| Winner: Olympiacos Piraeus | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/greek-basketball-league-winner-olympiacos-piraeus-polymarket-0x13212acf840bb47569df75589a467686a7ceab085a5d19ff9a737c5c0b17c82b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: AEK Athens | Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki | Winner: Panathinaikos Athens |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 6 | — | 45 |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 6 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 50 | 49 |
| 2026-05-07 | 49 | 50 | 48 |
| 2026-05-08 | 50 | — | 48 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Olympiacos Piraeus +7pp 33→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki +6pp 44→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: PAOK Thessaloniki −5pp 49→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Olympiacos Piraeus −5pp 40→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The Greek Basketball League probability reflects market expectations around the 2025-26 season championship, with multiple strong contenders making the outcome competitive. Olympiacos Piraeus is priced lowest at 42%, while Panathinaikos Athens and AEK Athens are closer to 50%, indicating near-parity among top teams. Season performance through the spring would be the primary driver of shifting probabilities, as teams demonstrate their depth and consistency against competition. The championship will resolve in late May or early June 2026 when the playoff finals conclude. Current low trading volume suggests limited market conviction, and team-specific factors like roster stability, injury status, and playoff momentum would significantly influence final outcomes.

### Key factors

- Olympiacos Piraeus is priced 7-8 cents below the next favorites, indicating market perception of slightly lower championship odds despite historical strength
- Panathinaikos Athens and AEK Athens are priced identically near 50%, suggesting nearly equal perceived probability between these traditional powerhouses
- Trading volume is zero across all visible contracts in the last 24 hours, reflecting minimal market activity and low certainty in current prices
- The Greek Basketball League championship resolves via playoff competition in late May-June 2026, with outcomes dependent on in-season performance and playoff bracket dynamics
- International Basketball Champions League contracts appear in the data, indicating some market interest extends beyond domestic competition outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greek-basketball-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=greek-basketball-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.