# Will Trump buy Greenland

> Before January 20, 2029 leads at 25%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greenland
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.686Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: Before January 20, 2029 at 25%
- Runner-up: Before 2027 at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 20, 2029 | 25¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-buy-greenland-before-january-20-2029-kalshi-kxgreenland-29 |
| Before 2027 | 8¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-buy-greenland-before-2027-kalshi-kxgreenland-29-27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before January 20, 2029 | Before 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 28 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 27 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 25 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 25 | 8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 25 | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 25% probability reflects traders' assessment that Trump will successfully acquire Greenland during his current term. This outcome would require sustained political commitment, Danish cooperation or pressure, Congressional approval, and likely substantial financial or diplomatic negotiation. The probability remains relatively low because Greenland is a Danish autonomous territory with its own government, and formal sovereignty transfer faces constitutional and international barriers. Key factors driving the price include Trump's public statements about Greenland acquisition, movement toward concrete policy proposals or budget requests, and signals from Danish or Greenlandic leadership regarding openness to discussions. The main uncertainty centers on whether Trump pursues this as serious policy versus rhetorical positioning. Developments before end-2026 would indicate if acquisition moves from stated interest to actionable negotiations.

### Key factors

- Trump administration makes a formal acquisition proposal or includes Greenland purchase in official policy documents or budget submissions
- Danish government or Greenland's local government publicly signals willingness to negotiate sovereignty or significant autonomy changes
- U.S. Congress allocates funding or passes legislation supporting an acquisition attempt
- Trump publicly emphasizes Greenland acquisition as a priority in speeches or policy announcements beyond one-off comments
- No formal discussions or policy mechanisms are established by Q4 2026, suggesting the idea remains aspirational rather than operational

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greenland
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=greenland
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.