# Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greenlandprice
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.497Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-22

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $600 billion to $899 billion | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-pay-between-600-billion-and-899-billio-kalshi-kxgreenlandprice-29jan21-749b |
| $0 / No Acquisition | 82¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-no-us-acquisition-of-greenland-durin-kalshi-kxgreenlandprice-29jan21-noacq |
| $100 billion to $299 billion | 3¢ | −1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-pay-between-100-billion-and-299-billio-kalshi-kxgreenlandprice-29jan21-199b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 29 |
| 2026-06-12 | 43 |
| 2026-06-19 | 82 |
| 2026-06-26 | 82 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the U.S. will not acquire Greenland before Trump's term ends in January 2029. The 35% probability implies traders estimate roughly a one-in-three chance of some form of acquisition occurring. The significant 25-percentage-point gap between venues suggests disagreement about the likelihood: Kalshi traders (40%) price it higher than Polymarket traders (15%), possibly reflecting different assessments of Trump's negotiating capacity or Denmark's willingness to sell. Key drivers include Trump's publicly stated interest in acquiring Greenland, Denmark's firm constitutional and political opposition, and the complexity of executing such a transaction through diplomatic or other means. Resolution will depend on whether any formal acquisition, transfer agreement, or territorial change occurs before the term concludes.

### Key factors

- Trump administration officials have publicly discussed Greenland acquisition interest, but Denmark's government and Greenlandic authorities have consistently rejected sale proposals
- U.S.-Denmark diplomatic relations and NATO alliance considerations create structural barriers to forced acquisition but leave negotiated purchase theoretically possible
- The large inter-venue probability gap (25pp) suggests material disagreement among sophisticated traders about feasibility, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
- No formal acquisition mechanism, timeline, or negotiation framework has been publicly announced as of mid-2026
- Polymarket's much lower probability (15%) despite high geopolitical volatility may reflect skepticism about transaction likelihood versus Kalshi's higher estimate

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greenlandprice
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=greenlandprice
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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