# Will British Columbia Lions win the CFL Grey Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 6 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greycup
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:55.132Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-30

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Alouettes | 35¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-montreal-alouettes-win-the-cfl-grey-cup-montr-kalshi-kxgreycup-26-mtl |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 17¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-saskatchewan-roughriders-win-the-cfl-grey-cup-kalshi-kxgreycup-26-ssk |
| Edmonton Elks | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-edmonton-elks-win-the-cfl-grey-cup-edmonton-e-kalshi-kxgreycup-26-edm |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-winnipeg-blue-bombers-win-the-cfl-grey-cup-wi-kalshi-kxgreycup-26-wpg |
| British Columbia Lions | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-british-columbia-lions-win-the-cfl-grey-cup-b-kalshi-kxgreycup-26-bc |
| Calgary Stampeders | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-calgary-stampeders-win-the-cfl-grey-cup-calga-kalshi-kxgreycup-26-cgy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | 14 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Saskatchewan Roughriders +5pp 12→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The British Columbia Lions have an 8% probability of winning the 2026 CFL Grey Cup, based on aggregated odds from prediction markets. This represents roughly a 1-in-12 chance the Lions capture Canadian football's championship. The Lions' current odds reflect their competitive position relative to stronger teams like the Montreal Alouettes (11% probability), who appear favored. Key factors influencing this probability include the Lions' recent performance record, roster strength compared to other CFL teams, and their health status heading into the season. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty around these odds will be the Grey Cup championship game itself, scheduled for late November 2026, though regular-season performance from June through October will incrementally adjust market expectations based on actual game results and standings.

### Key factors

- British Columbia Lions' win-loss record and playoff positioning through the 2026 regular season (June-October) directly affects their championship odds
- Injury status of key offensive and defensive players, particularly quarterbacks and defensive leaders, compared to competitors
- Head-to-head performance against other top contenders like Montreal Alouettes and other strong teams during the regular season
- Overall CFL roster depth and free-agency acquisitions made by the Lions versus other franchises entering the season
- Recent historical playoff success rate and Grey Cup appearances by the Lions organization versus current frontrunners

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/greycup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=greycup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.