# Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Botafogo FC

> Grêmio Novorizontino leads at 54%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grmio-novorizontino-vs-botafogo-fc
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.767Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-11

## Headline

- Leader: Grêmio Novorizontino at 54%
- Runner-up: Draw (Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Botafogo FC) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio Novorizontino | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/grmio-novorizontino-vs-botafogo-fc-grmio-novorizon-polymarket-0x6d446b2ebabb4e42e94d4346740459f8051eb3cb18f2c88039f5b69a4aaf9c3e |
| Draw (Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Botafogo FC) | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/grmio-novorizontino-vs-botafogo-fc-draw-grmio-novo-polymarket-0x0d14b65a464119bce0fa0aa9bb6f5131f418f64342fe4254f311255daabb3d0c |
| Botafogo FC | 18¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/grmio-novorizontino-vs-botafogo-fc-botafogo-fc-polymarket-0x64ecee295e404bedad94eecea2590d1b65cf94cd9f189b23ee1cf00e96b453ac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Grêmio Novorizontino | Botafogo FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 53 | 17 |
| 2026-05-08 | 54 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The current pricing reflects market expectation that Grêmio Novorizontino has a 53% chance of defeating Botafogo FC, with a 28% probability of a draw and 18% for Botafogo to win. The leader's elevated probability likely reflects recent form, head-to-head record, or home-field advantage if applicable. This match represents a competitive fixture in Brazilian football where outcome uncertainty remains substantial—nearly half the probability mass sits on non-Grêmio results. The resolution depends on match-day performance on the scheduled date, with factors like team injuries, lineup changes, and tactical adjustments influencing final odds into kickoff. Current volume on synthetic contracts is minimal, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Grêmio Novorizontino's 53% implied win probability exceeds the draw (28%) and Botafogo (18%) combined only marginally, indicating meaningful uncertainty rather than a strong favorite
- Recent team form, goal-scoring record, and defensive metrics for both clubs in the weeks preceding this fixture will inform whether the current probability reflects current competitive state
- Injury status of key players for either side—especially starting attackers or defensive leaders—represents a concrete variable that could shift pricing materially before match day
- Head-to-head record and venue (home/away split) if this is a league match with established home-field effects, are historically predictive factors in Brazilian football
- Volume and bid-ask spreads on the three contracts remain at zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting the 53% price may reflect minimal recent consensus revision and could shift with fresh trading activity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grmio-novorizontino-vs-botafogo-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=grmio-novorizontino-vs-botafogo-fc

## License

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