# Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grok-grok47
Updated: 2026-08-20T19:20:53.068Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-09-04

## Headline

- Leader: Before Sep 4, 2026 at 45%
- Runner-up: Before Aug 31, 2026 at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 4, 2026 | 45¢ | −5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacexai-release-grok-47-before-sep-4-2026-be-kalshi-kxgrok-grok47-26sep04 |
| Before Aug 31, 2026 | 29¢ | +7pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacexai-release-grok-47-before-aug-31-2026-b-kalshi-kxgrok-grok47-26aug31 |
| Before Aug 28, 2026 | 21¢ | −4pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacexai-release-grok-47-before-aug-28-2026-b-kalshi-kxgrok-grok47-26aug28 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Sep 4, 2026 | Before Aug 31, 2026 | Before Aug 28, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 63 | 48 | 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | 44 | 11 | 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | 38 | 9 | 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | 33 | 16 | 12 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-18 · Before Aug 31, 2026 −10pp 19→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Before Aug 31, 2026 +7pp 9→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Before Sep 4, 2026 −5pp 38→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Before Aug 28, 2026 −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Before Sep 4, 2026 +3pp 35→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that market participants assign a 63% chance SpaceX AI releases Grok 4.7 by September 4, 2026—roughly five weeks from now. The relatively high probability reflects recent Grok release cadence, though the steep price decline across earlier deadlines (from 63¢ to just 11¢ for the August 21 window) suggests skepticism about near-term delivery. Market makers appear to expect either a late-August or early-September release rather than an imminent one. The key driver is SpaceX AI's historical release velocity; if Grok 4.7 is already in final testing or staged for release, the probability would likely hold or rise. Conversely, silence on the development timeline or competing priorities could lower it. The primary resolution point will be any official announcement from SpaceX or xAI regarding version 4.7 status, which would clarify whether the September 4 window is realistic or optimistic.

### Key factors

- Recent Grok release history and average time between major version updates establishes baseline expectations for development cycles
- Contract pricing structure shows declining conviction for earlier deadlines (11¢ for Aug 21 vs 63¢ for Sep 4), indicating market expects late August or early September timing rather than imminent release
- Any public statements from xAI leadership or SpaceX regarding Grok 4.7 development status, roadmap milestones, or testing phases would directly impact probability assessment
- Absence of official announcement or development news as August progresses would typically compress probabilities toward post-September outcomes
- Historical pattern of surprise drops versus announced release schedules affects how markets price pre-announcement uncertainty windows

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/grok-grok47
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=grok-grok47
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.