# Will GTA 6 be delayed?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 16 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gta6-delay
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.132Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 9¢ | ±0 | $520 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-th-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-bad |
| Drake | 72¢ | +2pp | $430 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-dra |
| Taylor Swift | 13¢ | −1pp | $392 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-tay |
| Drake | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerup-26-dra |
| Babydoll | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-babydoll-be-the-1-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongspotify-26-dom |
| Bruno Mars | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-mars-be-the-1-most-streamed-artist-on-t-kalshi-kxtopartistusa-26-brun |
| The Life of a Showgirl | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-life-of-a-showgirl-be-the-2-most-streamed-kalshi-kxtopalbumrunnerupusa-26-tay |
| Drake | 42¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-be-the-3-most-streamed-artist-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopartistthird-26-dra |
| I’m The Problem | 34¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-im-the-problem-be-the-1-most-streamed-album-o-kalshi-kxtopalbumspotifyusa-26-mor |
| End of Beginning | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-end-of-beginning-be-the-1-most-streamed-song-kalshi-kxtopsongspotify-26-end |
| DtMF | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dtmf-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2026-kalshi-kxtopsongrunnerupusa-26-dtmf |
| Iceman | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-be-the-2-most-streamed-album-on-the-20-kalshi-kxtopalbumrunnerupusa-26-ice |
| DtMF | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dtmf-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-2026-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-dtmf |
| Morgan Wallen | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-morgan-wallen-be-the-2-most-streamed-artist-o-kalshi-kxtopartistrunnerupusa-26-mor |
| petal | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-petal-be-the-3-most-streamed-album-on-the-202-kalshi-kxtopalbumthird-26-pet |
| Your Idol | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-your-idol-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-you |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 16 |
| 2026-05-25 | 25 |
| 2026-06-01 | 28 |
| 2026-06-08 | 31 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Drake +6pp 36→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Taylor Swift +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · End of Beginning −3pp 22→19¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gta6-delay
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gta6-delay

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.