# What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch

> Blinding Lights leads at 44%, runner-up 44% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gta6songs
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.812Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Blinding Lights at 44%
- Runner-up: Despacito at 44%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blinding Lights | 44¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-bl-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-bli |
| Despacito | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-de-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-des |
| Sicko Mode | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-si-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-sic |
| God’s Plan | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-go-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-god |
| Bad and Boujee | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-ba-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-bad |
| Rockstar | 40¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-ro-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-roc |
| Pepas | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-pe-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-pep |
| Mo Bamba | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-mo-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-mob |
| Mask Off | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-ma-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-mas |
| Look at Me! | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-lo-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-loo |
| Stay | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-st-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-sta |
| XO Tour Llif3 | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-xo-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-xot |
| As It Was | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-as-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-asi |
| Shape of You | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-songs-will-be-on-the-gta-6-radio-at-launch-sh-kalshi-kxgta6songs-30-sha |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Blinding Lights | Despacito | Sicko Mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 38 |
| 2026-04-15 | 42 | 50 | 38 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 48 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 44 | 49 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 43 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 | 44 | 39 |
| 2026-05-08 | 44 | 44 | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Despacito −6pp 49→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Blinding Lights +4pp 44→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Pepas +4pp 34→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · God’s Plan +4pp 36→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Blinding Lights −3pp 47→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that specific song titles will be confirmed on Grand Theft Auto VI's in-game radio stations at the game's launch. The 34% probability suggests moderate uncertainty about which artists and tracks will appear in the soundtrack. Key factors influencing this level include Rockstar Games' historical pattern of licensing major artists for GTA soundtracks and the amount of information publicly confirmed before launch. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be Rockstar's official soundtrack announcement, typically released weeks before or at the September 2025 launch date. Currently, minimal details about the radio playlist have been publicly disclosed, which supports the moderate probability. Once the full track list releases, this prediction would move toward near-certainty or resolve completely based on whether the specified songs appear.

### Key factors

- Rockstar Games' track record of licensing major commercial artists for GTA radio stations, which typically includes 50-100+ songs per game
- The timing and specificity of Rockstar's official soundtrack announcements relative to launch, which historically occurs 2-8 weeks before release
- Current scarcity of publicly disclosed song titles for GTA VI radio, limiting analyst confidence in specific tracks appearing
- Historical precedent that certain mega-artists frequently appear on GTA soundtracks versus emerging or niche artists with lower licensing probability
- Whether the prediction references specific song titles versus general artist categories, affecting the baseline probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gta6songs
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gta6songs

## License

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