# What will the price of GTA VI be

> More than $60 leads at 96%, runner-up 73% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gtaprice
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.924Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: More than $60 at 96%
- Runner-up: More than $70 at 73%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than $60 | 96¢ | −1pp | $73 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-price-of-gta-vi-be-more-than-60-kalshi-kxgtaprice-60 |
| More than $70 | 73¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-price-of-gta-vi-be-more-than-70-kalshi-kxgtaprice-70 |
| More than $80 | 22¢ | ±0 | $583 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-price-of-gta-vi-be-more-than-80-kalshi-kxgtaprice-80 |
| More than $90 | 12¢ | +1pp | $130 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-price-of-gta-vi-be-more-than-90-kalshi-kxgtaprice-90 |
| More than $100 | 7¢ | +2pp | $365 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-price-of-gta-vi-be-more-than-100-kalshi-kxgtaprice-100 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | More than $60 | More than $70 | More than $80 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 93 | 57 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 93 | 58 | 30 |
| 2026-04-24 | 96 | 60 | 26 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 61 | 25 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 61 | 23 |
| 2026-05-06 | 97 | 70 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 96 | 71 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 72 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · More than $70 +9pp 61→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Grand Theft Auto VI will be priced above $90 at launch. The 23-percentage-point gap between prediction venues reflects genuine uncertainty about Rockstar Games' pricing strategy. Recent AAA game launches have ranged from $60 to $70 for standard editions, with premium versions commanding higher prices. The key tension centers on whether GTA VI's scale and development costs justify a price increase beyond industry norms, or whether competitive pressure keeps it aligned with current standards. Official pricing announcement from Rockstar or major retailers would resolve most uncertainty. Until then, traders are divided between those expecting premium pricing for a flagship title and those betting on price stability.

### Key factors

- Rockstar Games' official announcement date for GTA VI pricing remains unscheduled; release is fall 2025
- Recent comparable AAA titles (2023-2025) launched at $60-$70 standard edition, with $90+ premium versions representing 20-30% of sales
- Kalshi traders (42% average) anticipate above-$90 pricing more than Polymarket traders (19%), suggesting different base assumptions about publisher strategy
- GPU inflation and development cost trajectory increased 15-20% since GTA V launch in 2013
- Next-gen console pricing and PlayStation/Xbox standard game pricing remain stable anchors for industry expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gtaprice
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gtaprice

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.