# Who will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/guamgov
Updated: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Therese Terlaje at 69%
- Runner-up: Tony Ada at 22%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Therese Terlaje | 69¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-guam-gubernatorial-election-kalshi-kxguamgov-26-tter |
| Tony Ada | 22¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-guam-gubernatorial-election-kalshi-kxguamgov-26-tada |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Therese Terlaje | Tony Ada |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 70 | 23 |
| 2026-09-06 | 71 | 23 |
| 2026-09-07 | — | 25 |
| 2026-09-10 | 59 | 19 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Josh Tenorio is priced at 33% to win Guam's 2026 gubernatorial election, meaning the market assigns roughly one-in-three odds to his victory. The relatively even distribution across five candidates—with Tenorio leading but Therese Terlaje at 25% and others between 8–14%—suggests high uncertainty about the outcome. Guam's gubernatorial elections are shaped by local economic issues, historical voting patterns, and candidate appeal, particularly around issues like military buildup, tourism, and fiscal management. The election itself will occur in November 2026, about four months from now. Major campaign developments, endorsements, or shifts in candidate viability could narrow or widen the gap between frontrunners. Current trading volume is minimal except on the Agustin contract, indicating low overall market engagement so far.

### Key factors

- Josh Tenorio leads at 33% but no candidate exceeds 50%, indicating fragmented support and material uncertainty
- Therese Terlaje is only 8 percentage points behind the leader at 25%, representing a strong alternative, while three other candidates split remaining probability
- The election date (November 2026) is approximately four months away, leaving substantial time for campaign dynamics, debates, or endorsements to shift probabilities
- Trading volume is near-zero on four of five contracts, suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect true underlying consensus
- Guam's small electorate and high participation by local political networks mean insider polling or community endorsements could prove disproportionately influential relative to broader patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/guamgov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=guamgov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.