# Águilas Doradas Rionegro vs. Once Caldas - More Markets: Águilas Doradas Rionegro (-2.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 5 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/guilas-doradas-rionegro-vs-once-caldas-more-markets-guilas
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:59.432Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 33% / Polymarket 50% — 17pp spread
- 24h volume: $109

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aguilas Doradas Rionegro | 10¢ | +1pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/ind-medellin-vs-aguilas-doradas-rionegro-winner-ag-kalshi-kxdimayorgame-26may03dimadr-adr |
| Ind. Medellin | 69¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/ind-medellin-vs-aguilas-doradas-rionegro-winner-in-kalshi-kxdimayorgame-26may03dimadr-dim |
| Tie | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/ind-medellin-vs-aguilas-doradas-rionegro-winner-ti-kalshi-kxdimayorgame-26may03dimadr-tie |
| Winner: Once Caldas | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-primera-a-winner-once-caldas-polymarket-0xbc54c99ad6d5302b67440c1e2e9a388f29aa30081e5d75f4adf6ae772ed6aa16 |
| Winner: Águilas Doradas | 49¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/colombia-primera-a-winner-guilas-doradas-polymarket-0xdb4ccb56ff2fd70a6f9990030ee6afac8ea73223b934830f24d2824af4141990 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 47 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Aguilas Doradas Rionegro +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Winner: Once Caldas +3pp 47→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Winner: Águilas Doradas +3pp 47→50¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/guilas-doradas-rionegro-vs-once-caldas-more-markets-guilas
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=guilas-doradas-rionegro-vs-once-caldas-more-markets-guilas

## License

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