# Gulf State military action against Iran by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 13 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gulf-state-military-action-against-iran
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:07.081Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 12% / Polymarket 21% — 9pp spread
- 24h volume: $175K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 39¢ | −5pp | $63K | polymarket | /markets/us-military-action-against-cuba-by-december-31-polymarket-0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0 |
| June 30 | 25¢ | ±0 | $48K | polymarket | /markets/israel-military-action-against-yemen-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3fe18d2b6303ee3a7e406aab679dbc0b0f7504dc6b477a31c69c6ffb04e9e11c |
| Reza Pahlavi | 6¢ | ±0 | $44K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-the-head-of-state-or-governme-kalshi-kxpahlavihead-27jan-rpah |
| No Head of State | 4¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-no-head-of-state-polymarket-0x6397f084bcee3390e92b0a4f8d0f1fa23ddabad1668c4a6783f5643564f646d6 |
| Before Nov 4, 2026 | 28¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-de-kalshi-kxelectionemergency-26nov04 |
| June 30 | 19¢ | −1pp | $869 | polymarket | /markets/israel-military-action-against-damascus-by-june-30-polymarket-0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4 |
| 10 | 16¢ | −4pp | $568 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86 |
| Before 2027 | 8¢ | +1pp | $452 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-recognize-reza-pahlavi-as-t-kalshi-kxrecogpersoniran-26 |
| 8 | 29¢ | +6pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 13¢ | ±0 | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-de-kalshi-kxelectionemergency-26sep01 |
| 9 | 27¢ | +1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692 |
| Iran | 5¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-ira |
| 11 | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x4fa0dfa81109ade4f993b63f5ea4c9ee5e01ff546b7ddc9708d441ca691eb39a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 18 |
| 2026-05-25 | 19 |
| 2026-06-01 | 19 |
| 2026-06-07 | 13 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · 10 −7pp 18→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · June 30 +6pp 12→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 10 +6pp 11→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 8 +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · 9 −6pp 26→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the assessed likelihood that a Gulf State—such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE—will conduct military action against Iran by a specified date. The 19% aggregate probability reflects moderate but non-negligible market concern about escalation in the region. The estimate is shaped by two primary drivers: first, the current state of US-Iran tensions and whether diplomatic or military pressure intensifies; second, the degree to which Gulf States perceive Iranian nuclear advancement or regional proxy activity as threatening enough to warrant direct action. The cross-venue gap suggests different risk assessments between markets. Key upcoming catalysts include developments in Iran's nuclear program, any major incidents involving Iranian proxies, and shifts in US policy toward Iran following the 2026 midterm elections. The related contracts on Israel-Yemen action and Iranian regime change reflect broader regional instability concerns that could either trigger or prevent Gulf military escalation.

### Key factors

- Current US diplomatic stance and military posture toward Iran, which directly influences Gulf State confidence in backing or conducting independent action
- Status of Iran's nuclear program development and any IAEA reporting on uranium enrichment levels or weapons capability progress
- Recent Iranian proxy activity in the region—including Houthi attacks, Iraqi militia operations, or other asymmetric threats that might provoke direct Gulf response
- Internal political stability of potential actor states (Saudi Arabia, UAE) and leadership appetite for military commitment versus economic priorities
- Historical patterns showing Gulf States typically act with tacit or explicit US support; absence of this backing would substantially reduce action probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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