# Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 1 contract — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gustavo-petro-charged-us
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:24.606Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $215

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 11¢ | −2pp | $215 | polymarket | /markets/will-gustavo-petro-be-charged-in-the-us-by-june-30-polymarket-0x4e06c069b48206b138c70caf6ff03a2dbf5796d3d0c4e66bd96d583cec984910 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 39 |
| 2026-05-01 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 11 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · June 30 +6pp 8→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 9% probability that Colombian President Gustavo Petro will face criminal charges in the United States by a specified date. The relatively low probability suggests markets assess such charges as unlikely in the near term, reflecting the absence of formal investigations or indictments to date. Movement in this probability would likely depend on reported evidence of crimes under US jurisdiction—such as sanctions violations, money laundering, or narcotics trafficking—combined with US prosecutorial and diplomatic decisions. Given Petro's status as a sitting head of state, charging decisions would involve both legal determinations and geopolitical considerations, particularly regarding US-Colombia relations. Key catalysts would include US law enforcement announcements, Congressional pressure, or disclosed investigations from US agencies.

### Key factors

- No public US indictment or formal criminal investigation against Petro has been announced as of the resolution date
- Sitting heads of state rarely face US criminal prosecution while in office due to diplomatic immunity considerations
- Any charge would require evidence of specific crimes under US jurisdiction rather than general policy disagreements
- US-Colombia relations, particularly regarding drug trafficking cooperation and extradition policy, influence prosecutorial likelihood
- Historical precedent shows US charges against foreign leaders typically require significant political will and extraordinary circumstances

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gustavo-petro-charged-us
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gustavo-petro-charged-us

## License

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