# Gwangju FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 19 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gwangju-fc-vs-daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:03.285Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $383

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United FC | 28¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC | 43¢ | +1pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-daeje-polymarket-0x76a37b690aecd81c24c5bf469243f7175236ac231ad8298c834611ede69b687c |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Incheon United FC (-1.5) | 9¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x8d81ee07e25f05febdfe0dcf9590bd9ec703e6babeb8f532e9ef0d3728d6e872 |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5) | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x1b4942c83673aa6671e57001745f1c23cd67edd43b92ce4cd663f334e9fdebf9 |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5) | 7¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x2db8baa05da287c57b226a6d3eb3c82412114a42a505d36b94afe097e7602d23 |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x110c5499e5eb45c4d9f51cc64d1dc6d65de41a7878946b7cf2bd3b2461e9a329 |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x73881eed654b4929511b52a3f86f85b660b193defce0ea008ff79d3bdc18c695 |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x14ce80ab43fc74748399bc950d32c9547836ce7f976d75f84c9f47cbf664b44a |
| O/U 1.5 | 71¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x322393ed3e69e093252f1d2d448d2437540e6b1adfcbba7381082b41ea6fb00a |
| Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC) | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-draw-polymarket-0x747211b11adb14e16471c8c62c23291c3bae76c3c903d1a710706ff49776dabc |
| O/U 3.5 | 27¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xd12dde970e6a963e3f1321f9c4477d7775353c10e980e13b007a718963e34dcd |
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC (-2.5) | 21¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xa885d75b2a174b6b83d00118af84b4d65386aae80b5fc9d89d554765c3b1ae71 |
| Both Teams to Score | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xa773da6ac189f8fe44583d729ca508941a97cfdac7d8b156c1e6f67b8d4349ac |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xb9f94b44f0b79e99e2b3ef7ad2793e0d801dd22350bbe2b56f6dd57c2d7f137d |
| O/U 1.5 | 74¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x8917c8bd5c8bb68a43be22af0ab69a334d5941038a71179ed46852972fcf3bcb |
| Gwangju FC (-1.5) | 6¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x6c4d812681552422be5113cae3c1443870b112f3ca6c42ac8ae8f1415a89fbcf |
| O/U 2.5 | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x8e448c4e1c1bac9a0b584cf6830518bfa51ba6ae017553dcd4c38dd4c306d5bf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 27 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-1.5) −18pp 35→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Gwangju FC (-1.5) −17pp 33→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5) −14pp 34→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Incheon United FC (-1.5) +8pp 17→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 72% probability reflects the market's assessment that Gwangju FC is favored to win in their matchup, based on aggregated contracts from Polymarket. The estimate reflects relative team strength, recent form, and head-to-head historical records. K League 1 standings and recent performance metrics—including goals scored, defensive record, and injury status—would be primary drivers of movement in either direction. The fixture date itself represents the key event that will resolve this uncertainty; outcomes depend on actual match performance rather than external developments. Related markets show mixed conviction across different bet types, with low trading volumes suggesting limited liquidity may increase volatility in probability estimates.

### Key factors

- Gwangju FC's recent form and current league position compared to their opponent
- Head-to-head historical record and performance differentials between the two teams
- Injury or roster availability status for key players on either side
- Market depth on Polymarket appears limited (low 24h volumes across related contracts), meaning individual large trades could move probabilities significantly
- The 72% leader price exceeds the runner-up at 52%, indicating some market consensus but not overwhelming agreement across all contract specifications

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gwangju-fc-vs-daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gwangju-fc-vs-daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-more-markets

## License

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