# Gwangju FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gwangju-fc-vs-daejeon-hana-citizen-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:05:25.184Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 31% / Polymarket 31% — 0pp spread
- 24h volume: $414

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC | 43¢ | +1pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-daeje-polymarket-0x76a37b690aecd81c24c5bf469243f7175236ac231ad8298c834611ede69b687c |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 71¢ | +9pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-jeonbuk-hy-polymarket-0xdfea5881595ff13bc238878ea35eb124a31b645b67c93eb6fdd3c5371b3f9e90 |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Ghana | 46¢ | ±0 | $11 | polymarket | /markets/ghana-vs-panama-ghana-polymarket-0x0256ef63427ed0d9eefa1422eee948165a2a215b0741a339025fb08b2cf6e15d |
| Draw (Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Gwangju FC) | 18¢ | −8pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-draw-jeonb-polymarket-0xe6fc3398e9ec7537e5961490cab0bfb5fbea85cf289e8a21c5581b5143832250 |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x73881eed654b4929511b52a3f86f85b660b193defce0ea008ff79d3bdc18c695 |
| Draw (Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC) | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-draw-polymarket-0x747211b11adb14e16471c8c62c23291c3bae76c3c903d1a710706ff49776dabc |
| O/U 1.5 | 71¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x322393ed3e69e093252f1d2d448d2437540e6b1adfcbba7381082b41ea6fb00a |
| Incheon United FC (-1.5) | 9¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x8d81ee07e25f05febdfe0dcf9590bd9ec703e6babeb8f532e9ef0d3728d6e872 |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5) | 7¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x2db8baa05da287c57b226a6d3eb3c82412114a42a505d36b94afe097e7602d23 |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x14ce80ab43fc74748399bc950d32c9547836ce7f976d75f84c9f47cbf664b44a |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x110c5499e5eb45c4d9f51cc64d1dc6d65de41a7878946b7cf2bd3b2461e9a329 |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5) | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x1b4942c83673aa6671e57001745f1c23cd67edd43b92ce4cd663f334e9fdebf9 |
| Winner: Daejeon Hana Citizen | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-daejeon-hana-citizen-polymarket-0xc8fac77c405c84cd56c294fc8e54661412693a57529576cea30f82728b94b8e0 |
| O/U 3.5 | 27¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xd12dde970e6a963e3f1321f9c4477d7775353c10e980e13b007a718963e34dcd |
| Gwangju FC | 9¢ | −18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/jeonbuk-hyundai-motors-fc-vs-gwangju-fc-gwangju-fc-polymarket-0x4fa9628795328fdd9b586dd0e161a81e47cc7d5eb43ea10f9774cf04a9bd6fa1 |
| Daejeon Citizen | 39¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/daejeon-citizen-vs-incheon-utd-winner-daejeon-citi-kalshi-kxkleaguegame-26may05dajinc-daj |
| Tie | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/daejeon-citizen-vs-incheon-utd-winner-tie-kalshi-kxkleaguegame-26may05dajinc-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 47 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-1.5) −18pp 35→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gwangju FC −18pp 28→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5) −14pp 34→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gwangju-fc-vs-daejeon-hana-citizen-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gwangju-fc-vs-daejeon-hana-citizen-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.