# Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul

> Gwangju FC leads at 38%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gwangju-fc-vs-fc-seoul
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.694Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Leader: Gwangju FC at 38%
- Runner-up: FC Seoul at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $37

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 38¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gwangju-fc-vs-fc-seoul-gwangju-fc-polymarket-0x65ca25e0bbfdd8fe5dc42e3d85fd55f7895b5ff18d3f89ad5f73cd2aabdab867 |
| FC Seoul | 35¢ | +1pp | $37 | polymarket | /markets/gwangju-fc-vs-fc-seoul-fc-seoul-polymarket-0x6e167a2daea6d24f325e32a025fe7ddf8a0ac3bad4278fa16cb68f6d38e7b76d |
| Draw (Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul) | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gwangju-fc-vs-fc-seoul-draw-gwangju-fc-vs-fc-seoul-polymarket-0x241cdda867a535620d105221620636c80845afc113572b83a1be97c3d5926b41 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Gwangju FC | FC Seoul | Draw (Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 40 | 32 | 29 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | 32 | 29 |
| 2026-05-09 | 41 | 33 | 29 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 42% probability reflects traders' assessment that Gwangju FC is more likely than not to defeat FC Seoul in an upcoming match, though the outcome remains uncertain with meaningful probability assigned to both a draw (30%) and an FC Seoul victory. The current odds likely reflect recent team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. Key drivers of price movement would include injury reports affecting either squad's lineup, shifts in recent performance trends, or betting-market consensus adjusting as match day approaches. The primary uncertainty resolver is the scheduled match itself, which will definitively determine the outcome and settle all contracts. Until that event occurs, the probability may fluctuate based on pre-match news, team announcements, or changes in aggregate market sentiment across available contracts.

### Key factors

- Gwangju FC is priced at 42% to win, suggesting traders view it as favored but not heavily favored
- The draw is valued at 30%, indicating meaningful probability of a non-decisive result
- Zero 24-hour trading volume on both contracts suggests limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- The third outcome (FC Seoul win) is implied at approximately 28%, making this relatively competitive across all three possibilities
- Price movements will likely accelerate as the match date nears and pre-match team news (injuries, lineup changes) becomes available

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gwangju-fc-vs-fc-seoul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gwangju-fc-vs-fc-seoul

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.