# 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 92% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gyeonggi-province-gubernatorial-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:56.652Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Probability: 92% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choo Mi-ae | 92¢ | −2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/2026-gyeonggi-province-gubernatorial-election-winn-polymarket-0xd07ad157463306284e16a0f897510948a1ff9904c4cbf0992e1421e62a079d38 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 94 |
| 2026-04-20 | 96 |
| 2026-04-26 | 93 |
| 2026-05-03 | 92 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Choo Mi-ae +18pp 76→94¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Choo Mi-ae −17pp 93→76¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 94% probability indicates market participants expect Choo Mi-ae to win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election. Gyeonggi is South Korea's most populous province, making this race significant for regional politics and potential national implications. The high probability reflects current polling strength and political positioning, though gubernatorial races can shift based on candidate campaigns, policy announcements, and local economic conditions. The election occurs in June 2026, providing roughly one month for campaigns to potentially alter voter preferences. Market liquidity remains relatively modest at under $2,000 in 24-hour volume, suggesting limited trading activity and potential price sensitivity to new information or polling releases. Factors that could move this probability include major scandal revelations, significant policy shifts by competing candidates, or unexpected turnout patterns in key districts.

### Key factors

- Choo Mi-ae's current polling position relative to other declared or potential candidates in Gyeonggi Province
- Trading volume and participant conviction level (current 24h volume ~$1,961 suggests moderate market interest)
- Timing of campaign events, candidate endorsements, or policy announcements between now and June 2026 election date
- Regional economic conditions in Gyeonggi Province that could shift voter priorities during the campaign period
- Any major political scandals or controversies affecting Choo Mi-ae or competing candidates before voting occurs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gyeonggi-province-gubernatorial-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gyeonggi-province-gubernatorial-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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