# Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H100 be above $4.00 in August 2026

> Above $2.00 leads at 87%, runner-up 76% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h100ms
Updated: 2026-07-11T04:20:52.229Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $2.00 at 87%
- Runner-up: Above $2.00 at 76%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $47

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.00 | 87¢ | +25pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-26aug-2.000 |
| Above $2.00 | 76¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27jul-2.000 |
| Above $2.25 | 70¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27jul-2.250 |
| Above $2.50 | 68¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27jul-2.500 |
| Above $2.75 | 59¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27jul-2.750 |
| Above $3.00 | 58¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27jul-3.000 |
| Above $2.75 | 41¢ | +3pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27mar-2.750 |
| Above $3.50 | 28¢ | +6pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27apr-3.500 |
| Above $3.25 | 17¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-26oct-3.250 |
| Above $3.25 | 17¢ | +4pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27jan-3.250 |
| Above $3.25 | 6¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-26sep-3.250 |
| Above $3.50 | 5¢ | −12pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-27jul-3.500 |
| Above $3.75 | 4¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh100ms-26oct-3.750 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $2.00 | Above $2.00 | Above $2.25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 79 | 13 | 12 |
| 2026-07-05 | 81 | 55 | 47 |
| 2026-07-09 | 62 | 71 | 70 |
| 2026-07-10 | 87 | — | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Above $2.00 −26pp 88→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Above $2.00 +25pp 62→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above $2.50 +18pp 50→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · Above $3.25 −14pp 31→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Above $3.25 −13pp 24→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measure indicates a 79% probability that NVIDIA's H100 GPU compute price will average above $2.00 per unit in August 2026, with much lower confidence (4%) in prices exceeding $4.00 that month. The high probability of staying above $2.00 reflects expectations that demand and supply dynamics will sustain baseline pricing, though the steep probability cliff at higher thresholds suggests limited consensus on significant price appreciation. Key drivers include H100 supply-demand balance, competition from newer GPU architectures, and enterprise purchasing patterns over the next six weeks. August 2026 represents the near-term resolution point; longer-dated contracts (October, December) trade at lower probabilities for higher price thresholds, suggesting traders expect gradual price stabilization or decline rather than sustained escalation.

### Key factors

- NVIDIA H100 spot market pricing as of late June 2026 and typical pricing ranges for enterprise GPU compute rental
- Announced GPU supply releases and competitive products entering the market through August 2026
- Historical volatility of enterprise GPU pricing and seasonal demand patterns for cloud compute
- Correlation between H100 price movements and broader AI infrastructure spending cycles
- Contract structure shows 75-percentage-point probability gap between $2.00 and $4.00 thresholds, indicating market skepticism of rapid price acceleration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h100ms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=h100ms
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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