# Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.43 by Jun 30

> Above $1.63 leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h100q
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.265Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $1.63 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $1.73 at 97%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.63 | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-1.630 |
| Above $1.73 | 97¢ | +37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-1.730 |
| Above $1.83 | 97¢ | +41pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-1.830 |
| Above $2.03 | 91¢ | +37pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.030 |
| Above $2.13 | 90¢ | +37pp | $197 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.130 |
| Above $1.93 | 90¢ | — | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-1.930 |
| Above $2.43 | 88¢ | +26pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.430 |
| Above $2.23 | 87¢ | — | $103 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.230 |
| Above $2.33 | 87¢ | +31pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.330 |
| Above $2.63 | 87¢ | +26pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.630 |
| Above $2.53 | 86¢ | +23pp | $111 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.530 |
| Above $2.93 | 61¢ | +24pp | $63 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.930 |
| Above $2.83 | 59¢ | — | $106 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.830 |
| Above $3.03 | 48¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-3.030 |
| Above $3.13 | 41¢ | +9pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-3.130 |
| Above $3.23 | 41¢ | +14pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-3.230 |
| Above $2.73 | 26¢ | +46pp | $193 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-2.730 |
| Above $3.53 | 9¢ | — | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-3.530 |
| Above $3.43 | 8¢ | −9pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-3.430 |
| Above $3.33 | 3¢ | +7pp | $197 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h100-sxm-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-kalshi-kxh100q-26jun30-3.330 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $1.63 | Above $1.73 | Above $1.83 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 68 | 60 | 56 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 97 | 97 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Above $2.73 +46pp 38→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.83 +41pp 56→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $2.13 +37pp 52→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $2.03 +37pp 54→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.73 +37pp 60→97¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently assess a 97% probability that NVIDIA H100 SXM compute pricing will remain above $1.73 per hour by June 30, 2026, based on trading contracts across multiple price thresholds. The high confidence reflects expectations that near-term pricing floors will hold, though higher price brackets ($2.43, $2.73) show notably lower confidence (around 86-88%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about upward pressure. Key drivers include current GPU supply dynamics, enterprise demand for AI compute capacity, and competitive offerings from alternative providers. The resolution depends on official pricing data from cloud providers as of June 30, providing a concrete measurement point roughly one month away. Contract volume concentrates around the $1.73–$2.03 range, indicating market consensus clusters around lower-to-mid price expectations rather than premium tiers.

### Key factors

- Current H100 pricing across major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) relative to the $1.73–$2.43 thresholds, which can shift with supply changes or competitive repricing
- GPU supply availability and competing demand for H100s versus alternative accelerators (A100, H200, custom TPUs) affecting effective market rates
- Enterprise AI workload growth and willingness to pay premium rates for established NVIDIA hardware versus newer alternatives
- Contract price distribution shows 97% confidence only at $1.73 but drops to ~86% at $2.43, indicating market expects prices to remain in the $1.73–$2.23 band rather than surge further
- Time-to-resolution (33 days) leaves room for spot market volatility, bulk contract negotiations, or supply disruptions that could drive prices up or down

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h100q
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=h100q

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.